Market Analysis & Outlook

Over the next 12 months, the S&P 500 could follow one of several paths, from a soft‑landing rally to a choppy range or a stagflation scare. With CPI up from 268 to 330 since 2021, the fed funds rate down from a 5.33% peak to 3.64%, and unemployment up from 3.4% to 4.3%, markets are entering a phase where the direction of macro data matters more than the level.

Over the last two years, the S&P 500 swung up and down as slowing inflation, interest‑rate cuts, the AI boom, and political shocks like tariffs and war alternated between lifting and weighing on investor confidence.