Search a ticker to simulate a range for the year ahead.
Last close$762.59
The chance of a loss over the year is 28%.
Point at the curve for the odds at any price.
Where the 2,000 simulated years finished.
The middle of the band is the return CAPM expects. CAPM starts from the risk-free rate — what a Treasury bond pays — and adds a premium for taking on stock-market risk. How much premium depends on beta, a number for how strongly the asset has moved with the market. A beta of 1 moves with the market and is expected to earn the market premium; a beta of 2 moves twice as hard and is expected to earn twice the premium. In short, expected return = risk-free rate + beta × market premium.
Each path is one possible year, drawn many times over. It starts at today’s price and drifts at the CAPM return above, while its day-to-day swings are as large as this asset’s own swings over the past few years — its historical volatility. Repeating that thousands of times gives thousands of different years. The band is the range most of them passed through, and the bell curve is how they were spread out at year end.
September 19, 2026
This week’s US markets revolved around the Fed’s September rate hike and the 10‑year Treasury yield pushing back to around 5%. Higher long‑term and mortgage rates weighed on value and cyclical stocks, while growth, gold, bitcoin and energy-related assets held up relatively better.
September 18, 2026
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered just below 5% (4.94%, down 1.4% on the day), leaving equities with a mixed finish. Tech and crypto outperformed while long Treasuries and European and Japanese stocks lagged, pushing investors to rethink how much interest-rate and global risk they want to carry.
September 18, 2026
On Friday, September 18, 2026, U.S. stocks ended a choppy week with modest index moves but clear dispersion under the surface, as a sharp Bitcoin rally and new SEC rules on tokenized stocks powered gains in financials and tech while most other sectors slipped. A 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 5%, triple witching, and rate moves abroad kept overall market sentiment cautious despite crypto-linked strength.
September 17, 2026
Even after the Fed’s first rate hike in three years pushed the 10-year Treasury yield around 5%, easing oil prices and slightly calmer bond markets helped US stocks stage a relief rally on September 17. For investors, borrowing costs are likely to rise further, but the Fed’s firm stance against inflation slightly reduces longer‑term inflation fears.
September 17, 2026
On Thursday, September 17, U.S. stocks logged their best day in six weeks as easing bond yields and cooler oil prices helped fuel a powerful rebound in growth and AI-related tech names, while communication services lagged on profit-taking.
September 16, 2026
On September 16, markets digested the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023, 10-year yields back near 5%, and a sharp drop in oil, leaving US stocks weaker while bonds, the dollar, and commodities moved in mixed directions. With both rates and oil sending complex signals about inflation and growth, it was a day that underscored the need for investors to prioritize defense and risk management.
September 16, 2026
On Wednesday, September 16, U.S. stocks slipped after the Federal Reserve hiked rates and signaled more increases could come, pressuring most sectors. Energy and financials led the decline, while healthcare and utilities eked out small gains as investors rotated toward defensive havens.
September 15, 2026
Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield pushed back above 5% and oil climbed well over $100 a barrel, putting broad pressure on risk assets from U.S. equities to crypto. With the Fed’s rate decision due tomorrow and a key U.S. Senate crypto bill failing to advance, investor sentiment turned more cautious across markets.
September 15, 2026
On Tuesday, September 15, U.S. stocks broadly slipped as surging oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield back above 5% pressured most sectors, while energy stocks rallied. With an FOMC decision looming tomorrow, investors trimmed risk exposure, weighing on tech, financials, and consumer-related names.
September 14, 2026
On September 14, the 10-year US Treasury yield pushed back toward 5% and crude oil climbed above $100 a barrel, putting renewed pressure on AI and growth stocks. Bitcoin, however, held near $80,000 despite ETF outflows, highlighting a mixed risk appetite across markets.
September 14, 2026
On Monday, September 14, 2026, U.S. stocks finished lower overall, but a powerful rally in cybersecurity names offset some of the damage as fresh AI safety worries gripped the market. Rebounding oil prices and higher yields weighed on energy, materials, and utilities, while communication services, healthcare, and consumer defensives offered relative shelter.
September 13, 2026
U.S. stocks rebounded late in the week as inflation data came in near expectations and oil prices eased, but over the last 10 trading days most sectors still finished lower. Energy and refiners outperformed on strong refining margins and high crude prices, while rate‑sensitive, regulation‑exposed, and AI‑disrupted names in cyclicals, software, and utilities saw sharp downside moves.
September 12, 2026
This week, the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield pushed toward 5% while oil prices burst above $100 a barrel, pressuring growth stocks and leaving major U.S. equity indexes modestly lower. But an inflation report roughly in line with expectations and a partial pullback in oil helped stocks recover some losses into the end of the week.
September 11, 2026
August CPI came in hotter than expected, sharply boosting odds of a Fed rate hike next week, but long‑term yields pulled back after briefly touching 5% and oil eased a bit, allowing U.S. stocks to rebound. In the short term, the risk of ‘re‑heating inflation + renewed tightening’ is rising, yet investors are still buying the dip and keeping risk appetite alive.
September 11, 2026
With August inflation roughly in line with expectations and oil prices easing from recent highs, U.S. stocks snapped a four-day losing streak on Friday. AI-related hardware names like HPE, Dell, and NetApp led a broad tech rebound, while rate‑sensitive utilities lagged.