The S&P 500 rose as broader sentiment improved, with AI-led mega-cap tech names acting as the main catalyst. Since other asset classes (like crypto and commodities) stayed weak, this looks more like theme-driven strength than a fully broad-based rally.

The Nasdaq staged a stronger rebound, signaling renewed capital focus on growth and AI-linked themes. With yields not making major new moves and investors re-assigning a growth premium, theme-driven momentum may persist.

The Dow inched higher, reflecting a steadier large-cap profile rather than a high-beta surge. While recession worries haven’t fully faded, quarter-end rebalancing and a ‘modest but positive growth’ narrative helped provide support.

Long-duration Treasuries are holding up despite some near-term noise, suggesting defense demand isn’t disappearing. With partial easing expectations in real yields still in play, upcoming data-driven catalysts may cause controlled volatility rather than a clear trend break.

Gold is holding up somewhat in the near term, but the broader recent trend remains pressured. When real yields don’t ease meaningfully, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding hedges rises and caps upside momentum.

Silver saw a minor bounce, but the overall picture remains under meaningful correction pressure. With real-yield headwinds and FX direction uncertainty weighing at the same time, upside momentum in precious metals looks constrained and volatility may stay elevated.

Oil remains pressured, extending the downside pressure seen over the past couple of months. Weak demand expectations alongside easing geopolitical tension have weighed on prices, and inflation-hedge demand also hasn’t provided enough support.

Bitcoin has remained under more adjustment pressure than momentum-driven rebound, with a clearly weak recent run. Expectations of a slower, cautious easing path have dampened risk appetite, and strong AI/megacap equity narratives likely pulled some speculative flows away from crypto.

Ethereum also stayed in a short-term weakening mode, reinforcing the broader correction phase. Similar to Bitcoin, uncertainty around the rate path and softer risk appetite weighed on sentiment, while rotation toward AI/tech narratives may have slowed rebound efforts.

Emerging markets had a near-term uptick, but the asset class remains vulnerable to swings in global rates and the USD. When U.S. growth/AI leadership dominates, inflows to EM can stay selective—more about tactical positioning than sustained momentum.

European markets moved modestly higher, consistent with a partial recovery in global risk appetite. Still, with rate and USD drivers not fully settled, the upside momentum may remain more muted than in U.S. tech-heavy markets.

Japan equities edged up, suggesting mild risk-on behavior without strong conviction. With global growth not sharply deteriorating but FX and rates still lacking clear direction, investors appear cautious and selective.

The U.S. 10-year yield was essentially steady, but the broader recent trend has been drifting lower. With traders looking ahead to major labor data and reducing conviction, the immediate risk of a sharp yield resurgence appears limited.

Real 10-year yields drifted lower, suggesting the market is leaning slightly toward a less restrictive rate outlook. Still, with real rates remaining elevated, this supports a more stable backdrop without fully removing the ceiling on aggressive risk-taking.

The U.S. dollar appears to be pausing rather than trending strongly, with day-to-day movement calming. However, the prior strengthening phase likely isn’t fully unwound, so FX impact may linger until clearer shifts in policy expectations emerge.

The 10Y–2Y spread further narrowed sharply, indicating more cautious expectations for the growth outlook and/or policy path over the longer run. Into near-term events, volatility can rise, so more data will be key to gauging whether growth fears truly ease.