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The US and China extended their trade truce into January, and farm trade is where tariffs are most likely to ease. That favours grain traders such as ADM and Bunge over other consumer staples companies.
What we changedWe raised our expected return for Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge Global SA against the rest of the consumer staples sector.
With Treasury yields at their highest since 2007, landlords whose long, fixed-rent leases behave like bonds, such as Realty Income, lose ground to landlords whose rents reset more quickly, such as Prologis.
What we changedWe raised our expected return for Prologis, and lowered it for Realty Income.
The US will put new tariffs and price floors on imported polysilicon and solar panels from December, aimed mainly at Chinese supply, and has moved to stop importers stockpiling ahead of them. Hanwha Solutions and OCI Holdings make solar products inside the US, so the protection favours them over other Korean companies.
What we changedWe raised our expected return for Hanwha Solutions and OCI Holdings against the rest of large Korean companies.
JPMorgan's chief warned that losses in private credit will be worse than expected, and the bank has cut back its lending to private-credit funds. Asset managers with large private-credit businesses bear that risk more directly than the big banks.
What we changedWe raised our expected return for JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, and lowered it for Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, KKR and Blackstone.
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signalled more, and Treasury yields reached their highest since 2007. Higher mortgage rates make homes harder to afford, which weighs on homebuilders more than on other consumer companies.
What we changedWe lowered our expected return for D.R. Horton, Lennar, PulteGroup and NVR against the rest of the consumer discretionary sector.
September 27, 2026
This week US equities traded with a negative tone as renewed Fed tightening fears and a sharp move higher in Treasury yields weighed on most sectors. Healthcare and select tech names held up, while rate‑sensitive defensives like utilities, energy and real estate sold off hard.
September 26, 2026
This week the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield pushed back above 5%, revisiting 19‑year highs as strong economic data and hawkish Fed commentary revived expectations of further rate hikes. Even so, AI-driven tech optimism, easing oil prices, and some de-escalation hopes in the Middle East helped U.S. equities grind modestly higher by week’s end.
September 25, 2026
Today, U.S. markets managed to hold up despite 10-year Treasury yields staying above 5%, helped by AI-related optimism and a pullback in oil prices. But the persistence of high long‑term yields keeps volatility and correction risks elevated heading into year‑end.
September 25, 2026
On Friday, September 25, the S&P 500 finished essentially flat, but industrials and AI infrastructure-related chip stocks quietly propped up the market while energy and communication services pulled back. Persistent pressure from higher bond yields was offset by solid durable goods data and renewed optimism around AI investment, steering money back toward growth-oriented sectors.
September 24, 2026
Today, U.S. bond yields pushed back toward 19‑year highs and oil prices jumped over 2%, reigniting fears of further Fed rate hikes. Stocks slipped, especially tech names, while long‑duration bonds, gold, and silver fell and the dollar and energy‑linked assets outperformed.
September 24, 2026
On September 24, U.S. stocks broadly softened, but names like Meta and Moderna helped cushion the downside while a failed buyout sent MGM and parts of consumer cyclicals sharply lower. Since July, energy and healthcare remain in multi‑month uptrends, while utilities, real estate, and consumer cyclicals continue to bear the brunt of higher-rate and demand worries.
September 23, 2026
On September 23, U.S. markets saw the 10-year Treasury yield jump to its highest level since 2007 and oil prices push firmly back above $90, sending major stock indexes lower. Stronger-than-expected economic activity, stubborn inflation worries, and geopolitical tensions around Iran and a high‑stakes U.S.-China summit combined to push investors out of growth stocks and long‑duration bonds.
September 23, 2026
On Wednesday, September 23, U.S. stocks fell broadly as oil prices jumped, Treasury yields pushed back above 5%, and a strong business activity report reset rate expectations. Energy and a handful of healthcare names outperformed, while rate-sensitive, cyclical, utilities and materials sectors lagged.
September 22, 2026
On September 22, 2026, the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield eased slightly below the 5% area and oil prices continued to retreat from last week’s spike, helping preserve a supportive backdrop for stocks and crypto. But with the Fed’s recent rate hike and “higher for longer” message still in force, today’s breather in yields remains a cautious rather than all‑clear signal for risk assets.
September 22, 2026
On Tuesday, September 22, U.S. stocks were mixed as AI- and semiconductor-related tech names pushed the Nasdaq near record highs, while energy and financials weakened on oil and regulatory concerns. After last week’s sharp gains, the broader market appears to be catching its breath.
September 21, 2026
Even as the 10‑year Treasury yield moved back near 5%, signs that the recent surge in rates and oil prices is pausing helped US stocks and Bitcoin rally. With tech and crypto leading the way, investors leaned back into risk, betting that higher rates are manageable as long as they don’t spike further.
September 21, 2026
On Monday, September 21, US stocks rose as falling oil prices and Treasury yields combined with a powerful AI chip and mega-cap tech rally to lift the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Technology, communication services, and healthcare led the market, while energy, materials, and defensives lagged amid a sharp pullback in crude prices.
September 20, 2026
U.S. stocks spent the week under pressure as another Fed rate hike, a 10‑year yield back near 5%, and choppy oil prices weighed on risk assets. Long‑term tech leaders held up relatively well, while consumer‑ and rate‑sensitive sectors like discretionary, financials, utilities, and real estate bore the brunt of higher borrowing costs and growth concerns.
September 19, 2026
This week’s US markets revolved around the Fed’s September rate hike and the 10‑year Treasury yield pushing back to around 5%. Higher long‑term and mortgage rates weighed on value and cyclical stocks, while growth, gold, bitcoin and energy-related assets held up relatively better.
September 18, 2026
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered just below 5% (4.94%, down 1.4% on the day), leaving equities with a mixed finish. Tech and crypto outperformed while long Treasuries and European and Japanese stocks lagged, pushing investors to rethink how much interest-rate and global risk they want to carry.