Search a ticker to simulate a range for the year ahead.
Last close$771.50
The chance of a loss over the year is 28%.
Point at the curve for the odds at any price.
Where the 2,000 simulated years finished.
The middle of the band is the return CAPM expects. CAPM starts from the risk-free rate — what a Treasury bond pays — and adds a premium for taking on stock-market risk. How much premium depends on beta, a number for how strongly the asset has moved with the market. A beta of 1 moves with the market and is expected to earn the market premium; a beta of 2 moves twice as hard and is expected to earn twice the premium. In short, expected return = risk-free rate + beta × market premium.
Each path is one possible year, drawn many times over. It starts at today’s price and drifts at the CAPM return above, while its day-to-day swings are as large as this asset’s own swings over the past few years — its historical volatility. Repeating that thousands of times gives thousands of different years. The band is the range most of them passed through, and the bell curve is how they were spread out at year end.
September 25, 2026
Today, U.S. markets managed to hold up despite 10-year Treasury yields staying above 5%, helped by AI-related optimism and a pullback in oil prices. But the persistence of high long‑term yields keeps volatility and correction risks elevated heading into year‑end.
September 25, 2026
On Friday, September 25, the S&P 500 finished essentially flat, but industrials and AI infrastructure-related chip stocks quietly propped up the market while energy and communication services pulled back. Persistent pressure from higher bond yields was offset by solid durable goods data and renewed optimism around AI investment, steering money back toward growth-oriented sectors.
September 24, 2026
Today, U.S. bond yields pushed back toward 19‑year highs and oil prices jumped over 2%, reigniting fears of further Fed rate hikes. Stocks slipped, especially tech names, while long‑duration bonds, gold, and silver fell and the dollar and energy‑linked assets outperformed.
September 24, 2026
On September 24, U.S. stocks broadly softened, but names like Meta and Moderna helped cushion the downside while a failed buyout sent MGM and parts of consumer cyclicals sharply lower. Since July, energy and healthcare remain in multi‑month uptrends, while utilities, real estate, and consumer cyclicals continue to bear the brunt of higher-rate and demand worries.
September 23, 2026
On September 23, U.S. markets saw the 10-year Treasury yield jump to its highest level since 2007 and oil prices push firmly back above $90, sending major stock indexes lower. Stronger-than-expected economic activity, stubborn inflation worries, and geopolitical tensions around Iran and a high‑stakes U.S.-China summit combined to push investors out of growth stocks and long‑duration bonds.
September 23, 2026
On Wednesday, September 23, U.S. stocks fell broadly as oil prices jumped, Treasury yields pushed back above 5%, and a strong business activity report reset rate expectations. Energy and a handful of healthcare names outperformed, while rate-sensitive, cyclical, utilities and materials sectors lagged.
September 22, 2026
On September 22, 2026, the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield eased slightly below the 5% area and oil prices continued to retreat from last week’s spike, helping preserve a supportive backdrop for stocks and crypto. But with the Fed’s recent rate hike and “higher for longer” message still in force, today’s breather in yields remains a cautious rather than all‑clear signal for risk assets.
September 22, 2026
On Tuesday, September 22, U.S. stocks were mixed as AI- and semiconductor-related tech names pushed the Nasdaq near record highs, while energy and financials weakened on oil and regulatory concerns. After last week’s sharp gains, the broader market appears to be catching its breath.
September 21, 2026
Even as the 10‑year Treasury yield moved back near 5%, signs that the recent surge in rates and oil prices is pausing helped US stocks and Bitcoin rally. With tech and crypto leading the way, investors leaned back into risk, betting that higher rates are manageable as long as they don’t spike further.
September 21, 2026
On Monday, September 21, US stocks rose as falling oil prices and Treasury yields combined with a powerful AI chip and mega-cap tech rally to lift the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Technology, communication services, and healthcare led the market, while energy, materials, and defensives lagged amid a sharp pullback in crude prices.
September 20, 2026
U.S. stocks spent the week under pressure as another Fed rate hike, a 10‑year yield back near 5%, and choppy oil prices weighed on risk assets. Long‑term tech leaders held up relatively well, while consumer‑ and rate‑sensitive sectors like discretionary, financials, utilities, and real estate bore the brunt of higher borrowing costs and growth concerns.
September 19, 2026
This week’s US markets revolved around the Fed’s September rate hike and the 10‑year Treasury yield pushing back to around 5%. Higher long‑term and mortgage rates weighed on value and cyclical stocks, while growth, gold, bitcoin and energy-related assets held up relatively better.
September 18, 2026
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered just below 5% (4.94%, down 1.4% on the day), leaving equities with a mixed finish. Tech and crypto outperformed while long Treasuries and European and Japanese stocks lagged, pushing investors to rethink how much interest-rate and global risk they want to carry.
September 18, 2026
On Friday, September 18, 2026, U.S. stocks ended a choppy week with modest index moves but clear dispersion under the surface, as a sharp Bitcoin rally and new SEC rules on tokenized stocks powered gains in financials and tech while most other sectors slipped. A 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 5%, triple witching, and rate moves abroad kept overall market sentiment cautious despite crypto-linked strength.
September 17, 2026
Even after the Fed’s first rate hike in three years pushed the 10-year Treasury yield around 5%, easing oil prices and slightly calmer bond markets helped US stocks stage a relief rally on September 17. For investors, borrowing costs are likely to rise further, but the Fed’s firm stance against inflation slightly reduces longer‑term inflation fears.