This is not a prediction. It does not try to say what will happen. It counts where a year could land if the market kept behaving as it has for the past three years. No value inside the band is a claim that things will turn out that way.

The method is the same for every ticker. This name’s own daily moves are reshuffled in blocks of 20 trading days into a year, and that is repeated 2,000 times. Blocks rather than single days because crashes and rebounds arrive in clusters, and drawing one day at a time would quietly remove that. The band is the quantiles of those 2,000 results; the centre line is one of the years actually generated.

Method

Bootstrap (20d)

Sample

750 days

Simulated

2,000 × 252d

As of

2026-09-04

Two things the data cannot settle are assumed instead: where the band is centred, and on what grounds. The assumptions column states both for this name. The width, the skew and the tails come from real moves; only the centre is chosen.

What it cannot see is worth stating too. Earnings, regulation, a takeover, a change of management — anything absent from the last three years is absent from this band. If the company itself changed in that window, its reshuffled past is no longer its future. Read it as a sense of scale for the uncertainty, not as a basis for a decision.

The actual price, then 2,000 years built by reshuffling the same 750 trading days. The band is where they landed.

The centre assumes growth of 8.8% a year, at the median, while the line on the left ran at 21.6% a year over the same window — the “assumed drift” and “realized drift” rows above.

The line is one simulated year that was actually drawn — the run that finished exactly in the middle, kept whole. The ribbons are daily quantiles instead, which is why it wanders across them: a year that ends in the middle does not spend the year in the middle. “Show all three runs” adds the ones that finished 25th and 75th.

Every series here was drawn through the same resampled days, so the bands are comparable across the switcher rather than unrelated runs.

“Ends below today” is the share of the 2,000 simulated years that finished under where they started; “median deepest fall” is the middle value of how far each one fell along the way. They are different questions — a year can fall that far and still finish higher.