Search a ticker to simulate a range for the year ahead.
Last close$754.23
Where the 2,000 simulated years finished.
The middle of the band is the return CAPM expects. CAPM starts from the risk-free rate — what a Treasury bond pays — and adds a premium for taking on stock-market risk. How much premium depends on beta, a number for how strongly the asset has moved with the market. A beta of 1 moves with the market and is expected to earn the market premium; a beta of 2 moves twice as hard and is expected to earn twice the premium. In short, expected return = risk-free rate + beta × market premium.
Each path is one possible year, drawn many times over. It starts at today’s price and drifts at the CAPM return above, while its day-to-day swings are as large as this asset’s own swings over the past few years — its historical volatility. Repeating that thousands of times gives thousands of different years. The band is the range most of them passed through, and the bell curve is how they were spread out at year end.
September 16, 2026
On September 16, markets digested the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023, 10-year yields back near 5%, and a sharp drop in oil, leaving US stocks weaker while bonds, the dollar, and commodities moved in mixed directions. With both rates and oil sending complex signals about inflation and growth, it was a day that underscored the need for investors to prioritize defense and risk management.
September 16, 2026
On Wednesday, September 16, U.S. stocks slipped after the Federal Reserve hiked rates and signaled more increases could come, pressuring most sectors. Energy and financials led the decline, while healthcare and utilities eked out small gains as investors rotated toward defensive havens.
September 15, 2026
Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield pushed back above 5% and oil climbed well over $100 a barrel, putting broad pressure on risk assets from U.S. equities to crypto. With the Fed’s rate decision due tomorrow and a key U.S. Senate crypto bill failing to advance, investor sentiment turned more cautious across markets.
September 15, 2026
On Tuesday, September 15, U.S. stocks broadly slipped as surging oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield back above 5% pressured most sectors, while energy stocks rallied. With an FOMC decision looming tomorrow, investors trimmed risk exposure, weighing on tech, financials, and consumer-related names.
September 14, 2026
On September 14, the 10-year US Treasury yield pushed back toward 5% and crude oil climbed above $100 a barrel, putting renewed pressure on AI and growth stocks. Bitcoin, however, held near $80,000 despite ETF outflows, highlighting a mixed risk appetite across markets.
September 14, 2026
On Monday, September 14, 2026, U.S. stocks finished lower overall, but a powerful rally in cybersecurity names offset some of the damage as fresh AI safety worries gripped the market. Rebounding oil prices and higher yields weighed on energy, materials, and utilities, while communication services, healthcare, and consumer defensives offered relative shelter.
September 13, 2026
U.S. stocks rebounded late in the week as inflation data came in near expectations and oil prices eased, but over the last 10 trading days most sectors still finished lower. Energy and refiners outperformed on strong refining margins and high crude prices, while rate‑sensitive, regulation‑exposed, and AI‑disrupted names in cyclicals, software, and utilities saw sharp downside moves.
September 12, 2026
This week, the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield pushed toward 5% while oil prices burst above $100 a barrel, pressuring growth stocks and leaving major U.S. equity indexes modestly lower. But an inflation report roughly in line with expectations and a partial pullback in oil helped stocks recover some losses into the end of the week.
September 11, 2026
August CPI came in hotter than expected, sharply boosting odds of a Fed rate hike next week, but long‑term yields pulled back after briefly touching 5% and oil eased a bit, allowing U.S. stocks to rebound. In the short term, the risk of ‘re‑heating inflation + renewed tightening’ is rising, yet investors are still buying the dip and keeping risk appetite alive.
September 11, 2026
With August inflation roughly in line with expectations and oil prices easing from recent highs, U.S. stocks snapped a four-day losing streak on Friday. AI-related hardware names like HPE, Dell, and NetApp led a broad tech rebound, while rate‑sensitive utilities lagged.
September 10, 2026
Today US stocks fell as oil pushed back above $100 a barrel and wholesale inflation (PPI) came in hotter than expected, driving the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.9%. Rising long-term rates and renewed inflation fears also weighed on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
September 10, 2026
On Thursday, September 10, U.S. stocks slipped as renewed inflation worries pushed bond yields higher and weighed on most sectors. A few standouts in communication services, tech, and healthcare could not offset sharp drops in names like Cooper Companies and several materials and energy stocks.
September 9, 2026
U.S. stocks slipped today as oil jumped back above $100 a barrel, reigniting worries about inflation and another Fed rate hike. In contrast, oil, gold, and silver rallied, showing investors are hedging against higher prices and geopolitical risk.
September 9, 2026
On Wednesday, September 9, U.S. stocks broadly fell as oil jumped back above $100 a barrel on escalating tensions with Iran, leaving energy as the only sector in the green. Communication and consumer-related sectors led the declines amid worries about a broadband price reset and pressure on rate‑sensitive and growth names.
September 8, 2026
A renewed oil spike on Middle East tensions pushed inflation fears back to the forefront and nudged the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.8%, pressuring U.S. stocks. Still, big tech, long-duration bonds, and gold held up relatively well, preventing a full‑blown risk-off day.