rising private-credit risk
JPMorgan's chief warned that losses in private credit will be worse than expected, and the bank has cut back its lending to private-credit funds. Asset managers with large private-credit businesses bear that risk more directly than the big banks.
What changed
We raised our expected return for JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, and lowered it for Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, KKR and Blackstone.
| Symbol | Without it | With it | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan ChaseJPM | 7.73% | 7.85% | +0.12pp |
| Bank of AmericaBAC | 7.79% | 7.92% | +0.12pp |
| Wells FargoWFC | 7.78% | 8.00% | +0.22pp |
| Apollo Global ManagementAPO | 7.89% | 7.31% | −0.58pp |
| Ares ManagementARES | 7.70% | 7.05% | −0.65pp |
| KKR | 8.23% | 7.57% | −0.66pp |
| BlackstoneBX | 7.97% | 7.38% | −0.59pp |
Each stock as it stands now, and without this story. Figures are annual expected returns (arithmetic means). They are not a forecast or a promise.