Search a ticker to simulate a range for the year ahead.
Ares Management Corporation
ARES
Ares Management Corporation, one year simulated
Simulating Ares Management Corporation…
Search a ticker to simulate a range for the year ahead.
ARES
Last close$122.01
The chance of a loss over the year is 50%.
Point at the curve for the odds at any return.
Where the 2,000 simulated years finished, as percent from the price today.
The middle of the band is our expected return for this asset over the next year. We start from what investors as a whole can expect to earn and share it out across asset classes, sectors and companies, in proportion to how much risk each carries and how they move together. Where we have specific information — analysts raising or cutting their earnings forecasts, for example — we move a company’s expected return up or down, and say why beneath the chart. The middle line is the typical outcome rather than the average, so the more volatile the asset, the further below its expected return it can sit.
Each path is one possible year, drawn many times over. It starts at today’s price and drifts toward the expected return above, while its day-to-day swings are as large as this asset’s own swings over the past few years — its historical volatility. Repeating that thousands of times gives thousands of different years. The band is the range most of them passed through, and the bell curve is how they were spread out at year end.
JPMorgan's chief warned that losses in private credit will be worse than expected, and the bank has cut back its lending to private-credit funds. Asset managers with large private-credit businesses bear that risk more directly than the big banks. This factor lowered our expected return for Ares Management.
As of September 23, 2026
Analysts cut their forecast for Ares Management's earnings next year by 2% over the past three months, below the average for the financial sector (up 2%). The 16 analysts who cover it largely agree, so we weighed this signal heavily. This factor lowered our expected return for Ares Management.
As of September 26, 2026
Earnings forecasts across the financial sector rose (up 2% on average). Ares Management tends to move with the financial sector, so this factor raised our expected return for it too.
As of September 26, 2026