Treasury yields at their highest since 2002
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signalled more, and Treasury yields reached their highest since 2002. Higher mortgage rates make homes harder to afford, which weighs on homebuilders more than on other consumer companies.
What changed
We lowered our expected return for D.R. Horton, Lennar, PulteGroup and NVR against the rest of the consumer discretionary sector.
| Symbol | Without it | With it | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. HortonDHI | 7.07% | 5.97% | −1.10pp |
| LennarLEN | 7.10% | 5.99% | −1.11pp |
| PulteGroupPHM | 7.46% | 6.52% | −0.94pp |
| NVR | 6.78% | 6.14% | −0.64pp |
Each stock as it stands now, and without this story. Figures are annual expected returns (arithmetic means). They are not a forecast or a promise.