Search a ticker to simulate a range for the year ahead.
Realty Income Corporation
O
Realty Income Corporation, one year simulated
Simulating Realty Income Corporation…
Search a ticker to simulate a range for the year ahead.
O
Last close$55.55
The chance of a loss over the year is 41%.
Point at the curve for the odds at any return.
Where the 2,000 simulated years finished, as percent from the price today.
The middle of the band is our expected return for this asset over the next year. We start from what investors as a whole can expect to earn and share it out across asset classes, sectors and companies, in proportion to how much risk each carries and how they move together. Where we have specific information — analysts raising or cutting their earnings forecasts, for example — we move a company’s expected return up or down, and say why beneath the chart. The middle line is the typical outcome rather than the average, so the more volatile the asset, the further below its expected return it can sit.
Each path is one possible year, drawn many times over. It starts at today’s price and drifts toward the expected return above, while its day-to-day swings are as large as this asset’s own swings over the past few years — its historical volatility. Repeating that thousands of times gives thousands of different years. The band is the range most of them passed through, and the bell curve is how they were spread out at year end.
With Treasury yields at their highest since 2007, landlords whose long, fixed-rent leases behave like bonds, such as Realty Income, lose ground to landlords whose rents reset more quickly, such as Prologis. This factor lowered our expected return for Realty Income.
As of September 23, 2026
Analysts cut their forecast for Realty Income's earnings next year by 10% over the past three months, below the average for the real estate sector (about unchanged). The 3 analysts who cover it differ somewhat, so we weighed this signal moderately. This factor lowered our expected return for Realty Income.
As of September 26, 2026
Earnings forecasts across the real estate sector were about unchanged on average, but they moved for individual companies, and through those that move with Realty Income this factor raised its expected return.
As of September 26, 2026