Search a ticker to simulate a range for the year ahead.
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation, one year simulated
Simulating Microsoft Corporation…
Search a ticker to simulate a range for the year ahead.
MSFT
Last close$509.34
The chance of a loss over the year is 43%.
Point at the curve for the odds at any return.
Where the 2,000 simulated years finished, as percent from the price today.
The middle of the band is our expected return for this asset over the next year. We start from what investors as a whole can expect to earn and share it out across asset classes, sectors and companies, in proportion to how much risk each carries and how they move together. Where we have specific information — analysts raising or cutting their earnings forecasts, for example — we move a company’s expected return up or down, and say why beneath the chart. The middle line is the typical outcome rather than the average, so the more volatile the asset, the further below its expected return it can sit.
Each path is one possible year, drawn many times over. It starts at today’s price and drifts toward the expected return above, while its day-to-day swings are as large as this asset’s own swings over the past few years — its historical volatility. Repeating that thousands of times gives thousands of different years. The band is the range most of them passed through, and the bell curve is how they were spread out at year end.
Analysts raised their forecast for Microsoft's earnings next year by 5% over the past three months, below the average for the technology sector (up 6%). The 32 analysts who cover it largely agree, so we weighed this signal heavily. This factor lowered our expected return for Microsoft.
As of September 26, 2026
Earnings forecasts across the technology sector rose (up 6% on average). Microsoft tends to move with the technology sector, so this factor raised our expected return for it too.
As of September 26, 2026
As of the September 28, 2026 close. Actual figures are from prices since October 2, 2023; one-year figures are from 2,000 simulated years. Not a prediction.