Search a ticker to simulate a range for the year ahead.
Carvana Co.
CVNA
Carvana Co., one year simulated
Simulating Carvana Co.…
Search a ticker to simulate a range for the year ahead.
CVNA
Last close$60.47
The chance of a loss over the year is 58%.
Point at the curve for the odds at any return.
Where the 2,000 simulated years finished, as percent from the price today.
The middle of the band is our expected return for this asset over the next year. We start from what investors as a whole can expect to earn and share it out across asset classes, sectors and companies, in proportion to how much risk each carries and how they move together. Where we have specific information — analysts raising or cutting their earnings forecasts, for example — we move a company’s expected return up or down, and say why beneath the chart. The middle line is the typical outcome rather than the average, so the more volatile the asset, the further below its expected return it can sit.
Each path is one possible year, drawn many times over. It starts at today’s price and drifts toward the expected return above, while its day-to-day swings are as large as this asset’s own swings over the past few years — its historical volatility. Repeating that thousands of times gives thousands of different years. The band is the range most of them passed through, and the bell curve is how they were spread out at year end.
Analysts raised their forecast for Carvana's earnings next year by 12% over the past three months, above the average for the consumer discretionary sector (down 2%). The 13 analysts who cover it disagree widely, so we weighed this signal lightly. This factor raised our expected return for Carvana.
As of September 26, 2026
Earnings forecasts across the consumer discretionary sector fell (down 2% on average). Carvana tends to move with the consumer discretionary sector, so this factor lowered our expected return for it too.
As of September 26, 2026
News on Treasury yields at their highest since 2007 and US tariff cuts on Chinese toys led us to adjust our outlook for other companies in the consumer discretionary sector. Carvana tends to move with them, so this factor lowered our expected return for it.
As of September 28, 2026
As of the September 28, 2026 close. Actual figures are from prices since September 29, 2023; one-year figures are from 2,000 simulated years. Not a prediction.