February 23, 2026View Related Post →

Falling Real Yields Weaker Dollar Gold Silver Rally Crypto Corrects Global Equities Rise

As of February 23, 2026, falling U.S. real yields and a weaker dollar are supporting strong rallies in gold, silver, and global equity ETFs. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum are deep in a correction, pressured by ETF outflows and rising policy uncertainty.

Weekly Macro Briefing

February 23, 2026 Macro Indicator Review

This week’s markets can be summarized in five themes: falling real yields, a weaker dollar, a powerful rally in gold and silver, a deep correction in crypto, and outperformance of non-U.S. equities versus U.S. megacaps. Let’s walk through how these pieces connect.

1. Rates: Real yields fall, yield curve normalizes

  • 10Y Treasury yield: 4.08% (–5.12% over 30 days)
  • 10Y TIPS real yield: 1.79% (–9.14% over 30 days, –1.65% over 90 days)
  • 10Y–2Y spread: +0.60% (+9.09% over 90 days)

What’s happening?

  • The 10-year nominal yield has pulled back more than 5% in a month, while real yields have dropped even faster, down over 9% on a 30-day basis.
  • The 10Y–2Y spread has moved further into positive territory, suggesting a gradual exit from the deeply inverted curve that had been flashing recession risk.
  • This comes after multiple Fed rate cuts into late 2025 and growing expectations for additional easing in 2026–27, including the potential re-expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.(investing.com)

Why it matters

  • Lower real yields are positive for non-yielding assets like gold and growth equities, as the opportunity cost of holding them falls.
  • A more normal, positive yield curve signals that markets see less imminent recession risk, which supports risk assets broadly.

2. Dollar weakness and global assets

  • U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 97.56 (+0.70% over 7 days, –0.73% over 30 days, –2.61% over 90 days)

The dollar has bounced in the very short term, but remains in a clear downtrend over the last three months.

Drivers: Policy uncertainty and rate expectations

  • Fiscal and monetary uncertainty in the U.S., plus expectations of continued policy easing, are capping the dollar’s upside.(investing.com)
  • The latest shock has come from trade policy: after the Supreme Court struck down earlier tariffs, former President Trump has called for a new 15% global tariff, reigniting trade war concerns and denting confidence in U.S. policy stability.(barrons.com)

How a weaker dollar feeds into markets

  • Emerging and international equities:
    • Dollar weakness reduces the burden of dollar-denominated debt and makes non-U.S. assets more attractive to global investors.
    • In line with this, EM (VWO), Europe (VGK), and Japan (EWJ) have outperformed U.S. benchmarks over the last 1–3 months, a trend big banks like JPMorgan expect to persist.(marketwatch.com)
  • Commodities:
    • Because commodities are priced in dollars, a weaker dollar typically supports higher prices in gold, silver, oil, and other raw materials.
    • The current data — strong gains in GLD, SLV, and USO over 90 days — fits this classic pattern.

3. Gold, silver, and oil: Real yields down + policy risk up = commodity rally

  • Gold ETF (GLD): 468.62 (+1.97% 1D, +5.64% 30D, +25.21% 90D)
  • Silver ETF (SLV): 76.62 (+7.90% 1D, +9.90% 7D, +69.14% 90D)
  • Oil ETF (USO): 80.85 (+6.07% 7D, +10.24% 30D, +16.67% 90D)

Three pillars of the precious metals rally

  1. Falling real yields

    • As real 10Y yields have moved lower, the opportunity cost of holding gold has declined, historically a powerful tailwind for the metal.
    • Analysts have repeatedly pointed to real yield compression, persistent above-target inflation, and heavy central-bank buying as key drivers of gold’s multi-year rally.(investing.com)

  2. Policy and trade risk

    • The Supreme Court’s ruling against earlier tariffs, followed by Trump’s proposal for a 15% global tariff, has reawakened fears of a renewed trade war and sustained policy volatility.(barrons.com)
    • These concerns undermine confidence in the dollar-centric system and increase demand for alternative stores of value like gold and silver.

  3. Safe haven + momentum dynamics

    • Recent commentary notes that gold is behaving not only as a traditional haven but also as a momentum-driven asset, with sharp moves and valuation stretched versus historical models.(marketwatch.com)
    • The explosive move in silver (SLV up ~69% over 90 days) underlines that investors are also using precious metals as short-term high-beta trades, not just long-term hedges.

Oil: Geopolitics and demand expectations

  • Tensions around Iran and the broader Middle East, combined with modestly improving global demand expectations, have helped push oil higher over the past three months.(barrons.com)
  • Rising energy prices feed renewed inflation worries, which circle back to support:
    • demand for gold and silver as hedges, and
    • demand for longer-duration bonds as investors seek to protect real purchasing power.

In short:

  • Lower real yields → stronger appeal for gold and silver
  • Trade and political risk → higher demand for safe and hard assets
  • Higher oil → inflation risk → more hedging via metals and bonds

These reinforcing loops are powering today’s precious-metal and commodity rally.

4. Crypto: ETF outflows and policy shocks deepen the correction

  • Bitcoin (BTC): $67,622 (–24.44% over 30 days, –23.40% over 90 days)
  • Ethereum (ETH): $1,957 (–33.73% over 30 days, –33.72% over 90 days)

Key drivers of the drawdown

  1. Large-scale spot Bitcoin ETF outflows

    • Since late 2025, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen billions of dollars in net outflows, with several days in February alone registering $400M+ withdrawals.(linkedin.com)
    • Institutional investors have been taking profits and de-risking, shifting from spot exposure into derivatives or out of crypto altogether.

  2. Macro and Fed repricing

    • Stronger economic data earlier in the year and political pressure around Fed appointments have led markets to dial back expectations for rapid rate cuts, which is hostile to liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.(forbes.com)
    • Bitcoin has historically outperformed in environments of aggressive easing and abundant liquidity, and underperformed when policy looks tighter or more uncertain.

  3. Policy and trade uncertainty favor “real” gold over “digital gold”

    • Recent coverage highlights a stark divergence: gold is rallying to multi-week highs while Bitcoin is plumbing new 2026 lows, especially in the wake of renewed tariff threats and legal wrangling over trade powers.(barrons.com)
    • In times of elevated geopolitical and policy risk, investors are clearly choosing physical gold over Bitcoin as their hedge of choice.

Mechanism: Why are gold and Bitcoin diverging?

  • In theory, lower real yields and a weaker dollar should help both assets.
  • In practice, though:
    • ETF outflows and thin liquidity are amplifying every leg down in crypto,
    • risk-off sentiment is pushing capital into treasuries and metals, not into high-volatility tokens,
    • and regulators and politicians remain skeptical, keeping a policy overhang on the sector.

The result is a regime shift where gold is reclaiming the “inflation and dollar hedge” narrative, while crypto trades more like a leveraged bet on risk appetite and liquidity.

5. Equities: rotation from U.S. megacaps to global and value

  • S&P 500 ETF (SPY): 689.43 (+1.13% 7D, +4.92% 90D)
  • Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ): 608.81 (–1.21% 30D, +3.31% 90D)
  • Dow Jones ETF (DIA): 496.08 (+1.20% 30D, +7.65% 90D)
  • EM ETF (VWO): 58.53 (+4.31% 30D, +12.45% 90D)
  • Europe ETF (VGK): 90.01 (+4.89% 30D, +14.88% 90D)
  • Japan ETF (EWJ): 91.47 (+7.89% 30D, +16.88% 90D)

What stands out

  1. Inside the U.S.: value and cyclicals are holding up better than high-growth tech

    • Over 90 days, the Dow (DIA) has outperformed the more growth-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ).
    • This suggests a rotation toward quality, earnings visibility, and dividends, and away from the most expensive AI/mega-cap names.

  2. Outside the U.S.: international and EM leadership

    • Major banks like JPMorgan note that international stocks beat U.S. equities by double digits in 2025 and are already ahead again in 2026, thanks to:
      • more attractive valuations abroad,
      • a softer dollar,
      • and reduced concentration risk versus U.S. megacaps.(marketwatch.com)
    • Our ETF data confirm this: EM, Europe, and Japan funds have all significantly outpaced U.S. benchmarks over the last 3 months.

  3. Rates as a support, commodities as a risk

    • Lower nominal and real yields support higher equity valuations, all else equal.
    • However, rising oil and renewed tariff threats pose a risk of margin compression and higher future inflation, which could reintroduce volatility.

6. Key takeaways for non-expert investors

  1. Rates:

    • Falling real yields and a more normal yield curve are generally supportive for both bonds and equities, and especially helpful for gold.

  2. Dollar:

    • A weaker dollar is a tailwind for emerging markets, international stocks, and commodities, and it breaks U.S. large-cap tech’s monopoly on performance.

  3. Commodities:

    • Gold, silver, and oil are benefiting from a mix of lower real yields, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risk.

  4. Crypto:

    • Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a macro-driven correction, squeezed by ETF outflows and shifting policy expectations, and behaving more like high-beta risk assets than “digital gold.”

  5. Equities:

    • There are early signs of leadership shifting from U.S. megacap growth to value, dividends, and non-U.S. markets. Diversification beyond a narrow set of U.S. tech names looks increasingly important.

For investors, this environment argues for balanced diversification: combining near-term momentum areas (precious metals, select international markets) with longer-term exposures that benefit from structurally lower real yields (quality equities and core bonds), while keeping an eye on how trade and policy risks evolve.

For more insights, visit https://nextinvest.org. Search for nextinvest on Naver.

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