February 23, 2026View Related Post →

Falling Real Yields Safe Haven Rally Strong Equities Weak Crypto

As of February 23, 2026, U.S. 10-year yields have edged lower and real yields have fallen more sharply, supporting a powerful rally in safe havens like gold and silver while U.S. and global equities grind higher. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain under heavy pressure, weighed down by leverage washouts, ETF outflows, and rising policy uncertainty.

Weekly Macro Briefing

February 23, 2026 Macro Indicator Review

This week’s markets are defined by a drop in real yields and a powerful safe‑haven rally, resilient equities, and a sharp correction in crypto. Below we break the picture into four main themes.

1. Nominal yields ease, real yields fall more sharply

  • U.S. 10Y Treasury yield: 4.08% (‑5.12% over 30 days)
  • 10Y real yield (TIPS): 1.79% (‑9.14% over 30 days, ‑1.65% over 90 days)
  • Yield curve (10Y–2Y spread): +0.60% (+9.09% over 90 days)

What does this mean?

  1. Nominal yields down a little, real yields down a lot

    • The real yield is the nominal yield minus expected inflation. When real yields fall, the inflation‑adjusted return on safe bonds shrinks.
    • Lower real yields are typically supportive for risk and real assets such as equities, real estate, and gold because they make bonds relatively less attractive.

  2. The curve is slowly normalizing

    • The 10Y–2Y spread at +0.60% and widening over the last 3 months suggests a move away from the deeply inverted curve seen earlier.
    • Historically, a move from inversion back toward a positive slope often coincides with late‑recession or early‑recovery phases, though the current shift is still gradual and not decisive.

  3. Policy and politics: easier money, higher uncertainty

    • The Fed has signaled gradual easing and potential balance‑sheet expansion into 2026, with some houses expecting further modest cuts in 2026–27 and a lower terminal rate.(investing.com)
    • At the same time, U.S. political and trade developments—especially new global tariff proposals—are injecting fresh uncertainty into growth and inflation forecasts.(barrons.com)

In short:

Falling real yields are a tailwind for asset prices, but they are occurring against a backdrop of rising political and trade uncertainty, creating a mix of easier money and higher risk premia.

2. Softer dollar, stronger EM/Europe/Japan

  • DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): 97.56 (‑0.73% over 30 days, ‑2.61% over 90 days)
  • Emerging Markets ETF (VWO): 58.53 (+12.45% over 90 days)
  • Europe ETF (VGK): 90.01 (+14.88% over 90 days)
  • Japan ETF (EWJ): 91.47 (+16.88% over 90 days)

Why do the dollar and foreign markets move together?

  1. Weaker dollar → friendlier conditions for EM and ex‑U.S. assets

    • A declining DXY makes non‑U.S. assets more attractive in dollar terms.
    • It eases the local‑currency burden of dollar‑denominated debt and often supports capital flows into emerging markets.

  2. Europe and Japan: standout performers

    • Over the past 3 months, European and Japanese equities have outperformed U.S. indices.
    • Europe benefits from more stable energy prices and tentative growth stabilization, while Japan is helped by corporate governance reforms, stronger shareholder returns, and comparatively loose monetary policy.

  3. Mechanism: weaker dollar → global risk‑on rotation

    • When the dollar softens, global investors tend to rebalance from U.S. into higher‑beta regions (EM, Europe, Japan) in search of better growth and returns.
    • The pattern in the data suggests that the U.S.‑centric rally is broadening into a more global, diversified upswing.

3. Equities resilient, bonds mixed… but safe havens and commodities are surging

  • S&P 500 ETF (SPY): 689.43 (1D +0.72%, 90D +4.92%)
  • Nasdaq‑100 ETF (QQQ): 608.81 (1D +0.88%, 90D +3.31%)
  • Dow Jones ETF (DIA): 496.08 (90D +7.65%)
  • Long‑term Treasury ETF (TLT): 89.41 (30D +2.79%, 90D +1.03%)
  • Gold ETF (GLD): 468.62 (1D +1.97%, 90D +25.21%)
  • Silver ETF (SLV): 76.62 (1D +7.90%, 90D +69.14%)
  • Oil ETF (USO): 80.85 (30D +10.24%, 90D +16.67%)

3.1 Equities: subtle rotation from growth to value/cyclicals

  • Over 3 months, DIA has outpaced SPY and QQQ, pointing to a mild rotation away from mega‑cap growth and toward value/cyclical names.
  • All three remain positive, indicating that risk appetite is intact even as leadership broadens beyond the tech giants.

3.2 Bonds: real yields down, but long bonds only modestly higher

  • TLT’s modest gains suggest that, despite falling real yields, investors remain cautious about going all‑in on long duration.
  • Reasons include concerns over fiscal deficits, lingering inflation risks, and policy uncertainty, which cap the upside for long Treasuries.

3.3 Gold, silver, and oil: safe‑haven and inflation‑hedge trades in sync

  1. Gold and silver’s powerful rally

    • GLD is up ~25% and SLV nearly 70% over 3 months.
    • Key drivers:
      • Falling real yields and expectations of a more dovish Fed stance,(investing.com)
      • Escalating worries over U.S. trade policy and a renewed “trade war” narrative,(barrons.com)
      • Central banks diversifying away from the dollar and adding to gold reserves.
    • A recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down prior tariffs, followed by an announcement of a new 15% across‑the‑board global tariff, has pushed investors toward gold and silver as hedges against policy and geopolitical risk.(barrons.com)

  2. Oil strength (USO +16.67% over 90 days)

    • Higher oil prices reflect both supply‑side constraints and lingering geopolitical risk, as well as hopes for a gradual global demand recovery.
    • More recently, talk of renewed diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran has tempered the rally somewhat, but the broader trend remains up.(barrons.com)

Core mechanism:

A combination of falling real yields and rising political/trade/geopolitical risk is producing a pattern where equities grind higher, bonds edge up cautiously, and gold/silver/oil rally much more aggressively.

4. Crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum in a deep correction

  • Bitcoin (BTC): $67,622 (30D ‑24.44%, 90D ‑23.40%)
  • Ethereum (ETH): $1,957 (30D ‑33.73%, 90D ‑33.72%)

Why have they fallen so much? Key drivers:

  1. Leverage washout and technical breakdowns

    • In late January and early February, BTC broke key support zones in the $80k–85k area, triggering waves of stop‑losses and liquidations.(lbank.com)
    • Single‑day liquidations reached into the billions, turning a correction into a cascade of forced selling, with prices briefly dipping near the low $60,000s.(cryptodailycheck.com)

  2. Spot ETF outflows

    • After powering the 2025 bull run, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen multi‑billion‑dollar net outflows in early 2026.(medium.com)
    • When prices fall, redemptions accelerate, forcing ETFs to sell BTC into a weak market—a pro‑cyclical mechanism that amplifies declines.

  3. Mining industry stress and additional selling

    • Winter Storm–related outages in Texas and surrounding regions knocked 30–40% of U.S. hashrate offline at one point, squeezing miner economics and exposing the grid’s fragility.(agmazon.com)
    • With production costs hovering above spot prices for many miners, a number of operations have been pushed to sell reserves, adding further downward pressure.

  4. Policy, tariffs, and regulatory overhang

    • New U.S. tariff moves and ongoing debates in Washington over digital‑asset and stablecoin rules have left many institutional investors unwilling to add risk until the outlook clears.(barrons.com)
    • At the same time, gold—not Bitcoin—has attracted flows as the preferred safe haven, undermining the “digital gold” narrative in the current episode.(barrons.com)

One‑line mechanism:

A mix of excess leverage, ETF‑driven selling, miner stress, and policy uncertainty has pushed Bitcoin and Ethereum into a classic post‑boom deep technical correction.

5. What this means for investors: three key checkpoints

  1. Watch real yields and the dollar first

    • If real yields keep drifting lower and the dollar remains soft, the backdrop stays supportive for equities, EM, commodities, and precious metals.
    • A reversal—real yields up and a stronger dollar—would be a clear warning sign, especially for EM, commodities, and growth stocks.

  2. Equities: rebalance growth vs value and U.S. vs rest of world

    • The data point to a gentle shift from U.S. mega‑cap growth toward value/cyclicals and ex‑U.S. markets.
    • Now is a sensible time to check for over‑concentration in U.S. big tech and consider more diversified, long‑term allocations across regions and sectors.

  3. Crypto: focus on volatility and policy risk control

    • The long‑term story for BTC and ETH may remain alive, but near‑term they are highly sensitive to leverage, ETF flows, and regulation.
    • Keeping crypto exposure within a loss level you can live with—and avoiding high leverage—is crucial in this phase.

Closing thoughts

As of February 23, 2026, markets are navigating a regime of “gradual monetary easing plus elevated political and trade risk.”

  • Lower real yields and a weaker dollar are constructive for equities, EM, commodities, and precious metals.
  • Major stock indices in the U.S., Europe, and Japan remain on a firm upward trend.
  • Crypto assets are working through a severe, policy‑ and leverage‑driven correction.

Over the next few quarters, the trajectory of real yields, the dollar, and key policy decisions (especially on trade and digital assets) is likely to set the tone for asset prices.

For more information, visit https://nextinvest.org/ko. On Naver, search for "nextinvest".

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