1) Different rules: real-time vs. auctions, price index vs. total return
Stocks trade every second, with live prices. Art sells at auction, often once every few years or decades, so indices like Artprice100 are updated quarterly/annually. Artprice100 returned +1.55% in 2023 and –8.3% in 2024. By contrast, the S&P 500 we usually see is a price index (excluding dividends). With dividends reinvested, the S&P’s total return is higher. Art has no dividends, so the fairest comparison is price vs. price.
2) Long-run numbers
| Index | Period | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| Artprice100 | 2000–2021 | +405% |
| S&P 500 (price) | 1999.12.31 1469 → 2021.12.31 4766 | +224% |
Interpretation: this is index vs. index. Art outpaced stocks in raw price terms since 2000, but the S&P with dividends included performs better. Transaction costs and liquidity differ massively.
3) Did these masterpieces really rise that much? — 22 case studies (+returns)
FX assumptions when converting: 1982 GBP→USD avg 1.7495; 2013 GBP→USD avg 1.5647; 1963 fixed $2.80/£ (Bretton Woods); 1 guinea = £1.05. Otherwise, same-currency comparisons without inflation adjustment.
| Artwork | First Sale | Latest Sale | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Monet, Meules (Haystacks) | 1986 $2.5M | 2019 $110.7M | +4,330% |
| Roy Lichtenstein, Nurse | 1995 $1.74M | 2015 $95.4M | +5,373% |
| Jean-Michel Basquiat, Untitled (skull) | 1984 $19k | 2017 $110.5M | +581,479% |
| Banksy, Love is in the Bin | 2018 £1.04M | 2021 £18.6M | +1,683% |
| Pablo Picasso, Femme assise près d’une fenêtre | 2013 £28.6M | 2021 $103.4M | +131% (FX adj) |
| Kazimir Malevich, Suprematist Composition | 2008 $60.0M | 2018 $85.8M | +43% |
| Amedeo Modigliani, Nu couché (sur le côté gauche) | 2003 $26.9M | 2018 $157.2M | +484% |
| Sandro Botticelli, Portrait of a Young Man Holding a Roundel | 1982 £810k | 2021 $92.2M | +6,405% (FX adj) |
| Gerhard Richter, Abstraktes Bild (599) | 1999 $0.61M | 2015 $46.35M | +7,530% |
| Peter Doig, Swamped | 2015 $25.9M | 2021 $39.9M | +54% |
| David Hockney, Portrait of an Artist (Pool with Two Figures) | 2018 $90.3M | - | single record |
| Edward Hopper, Chop Suey | 1973 $180k | 2018 $91.9M | +50,942% |
| Rembrandt, Portrait of a Man with Arms Akimbo | 2009 £20.2M | - | single record |
| Banksy, Devolved Parliament | 2019 £9.88M | - | single record |
| Andy Warhol, Green Car Crash | 2007 $71.7M | - | single record |
| Sandro Botticelli, The Man of Sorrows | 1963 £10k | 2022 $45.42M | +162,113% (FX adj) |
| Georgia O’Keeffe, Jimson Weed/White Flower No.1 | 2014 $44.4M | - | single record |
| J. M. W. Turner, Modern Rome – Campo Vaccino | 1878 4,450 guineas (~£4.67k) | 2010 £29.72M | +635,989% |
| Gerhard Richter, Abstraktes Bild (809-4) | 2012 £21.3M | - | single record |
| David Hockney, The Splash | 2006 £2.92M | 2020 £23.1M | +691% |
| Alberto Giacometti, L’Homme qui marche I | 2010 £65.0M (~$104M) | - | single record |
| Georgia O’Keeffe, Jimson Weed (commission) | 1936 $10k | - | commission (not auction) |
4) Why do the index and individual cases feel so different?
Selection bias: headlines love record sales, while most works don’t move as dramatically. Liquidity risk: the same painting may not return to auction for decades. Costs: auction fees, storage, insurance all eat into returns. Dividends: S&P 500’s total return is higher than its price index.
5) How should investors interpret this?
Think diversification: art is illiquid and non-correlated, better for long-term allocation. Check indices like Artprice100 for market health, and always verify individual sales with official lot pages. Compare price index vs. price index, noting that S&P total return is stronger. In short: art dazzles, but isn’t a stock substitute.
6) Conclusion: art also speaks in numbers
Over the long run, blue-chip art has done well: +405% since 2000, beating the S&P 500 price index. But recent cycles show volatility (+1.55% in 2023, –8.3% in 2024). Unlike stocks, art’s market structure is unique—few trades, high costs, no dividends—so investors should treat it as a diversifier, not a replacement.
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