🕰️Six Months of Fed-Speak (Apr–Sep 2025): From Patience to Preparedness to Gradual Rate Cuts

When the Fed speaks, markets listen. “What the Fed said” changes **rate expectations** and investors’ **risk appetite** for the day.

But the transcripts are always vague. In this piece, I walk you through the last **six months (Apr–Sep 2025)** with **direct quotes** from the Chair and key members, and explain *right next to them* what they really signal. The goal: after reading this, you’ll think, *“Ah, so this is how to interpret Fed language.”*

April — Cautious in the Fog: “No Rush”

April’s dominant tone was **patience**. Chair Powell put it bluntly in his Chicago speech:

> “We are in a position to **wait for greater clarity** before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

The key words here are *wait* and *clarity*. He meant: *no discussion of cuts or hikes until the fog clears*. Why? Because as he also noted, “changes in **trade policy, immigration, fiscal, regulation** are large and uncertain.” In other words, **tariff-related upside risks** to inflation were still alive.

Atlanta Fed’s Bostic echoed this caution at Emory University:

> “Moving too boldly with our policy in any direction wouldn’t be prudent at the moment.”

New York Fed’s Williams added another reason in Puerto Rico:

> “**Tariffs could push inflation up to 3.5–4% this year.**”

Put simply: with tariffs threatening to re-ignite inflation, April’s Fed-Speak was about **hitting the brakes and waiting for visibility**.

May — Reaffirming Patience: “Slow Down, Watch the Data”

In May, the refrain was the same, but the word *patience* was repeated more often, signaling **accuracy over speed**.

- Powell (May 7, FOMC press conference):

> “We can **afford to be patient** as things unfold.”

- Same conference opening:

> “We will not consider policy adjustments until we have **greater clarity**.”

Here *patient / wait / clarity* were the markers. Two key points:

1) **Policy is conditional** (only if jobs, inflation, tariffs are clearer).

2) **The cost of waiting is low** (no harm in delaying).

Mary Daly hammered the message:

> “**Patience is the word of the day.**”

May’s message, then, was: **no forecast, just conditions**.

June — End of Waiting: “We Are Prepared to Move”

In June, Powell repeated the same words but with a twist:

> “We are well positioned to wait to learn more **before considering any adjustments**.”

But others broke cover. Governor Bowman said on June 23:

> “If conditions are right, I would support **lowering rates as soon as the next meeting.**”

And Waller in a June interview hinted July was on the table, albeit **data-dependent**.

Interpretation tip: *patience* still dominated, but **for the first time someone named a date**. That was new.

July — The First Shot: “Cut 25bp Now”

July was a turning point. The internal discussion jumped from preparation to **outright proposals**.

- Waller (July 17):

> “It makes sense to **cut ... by 25 basis points two weeks from now.**”

- Mary Daly (July 10):

> “I see **two cuts ... as a likely outcome.**”

- Powell (July 30, press conference):

> “The current stance ... leaves us **well positioned to respond.**”

Translation: Powell stayed cautious, but **specific execution guidance (25bp)** was now on the table. Markets began to price September cuts. Powell himself said “two inflation and jobs reports” would be decisive.

August — Jackson Hole Pivot: “The Balance of Risks Is Shifting”

At Jackson Hole, Powell finally acknowledged the turn:

> “The **shifting balance of risks** may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

> “**Monetary policy is not on a preset course.**”

Translation: easing is now a legitimate option, with the **speed determined by data**.

Waller picked it up on Aug 28:

> “I would support a **25bp cut in September** ... anticipate additional cuts over the next three to six months.”

And Daly earlier in the month had said:

> “**The time is nearing** for rate cuts; may need more than two.”

Interpretation tip: at Jackson Hole, watch **adjectives**. *Shifting*, *not preset*, *gradual*—these are code words. Direction = easing. Speed = slow, conditional.

Early September — The Consensus: “Gradual Cuts Ahead”

By the first week of September, the puzzle was complete.

- Williams (Sep 4):

> “If the economy evolves as expected, a **gradual path of cuts** toward neutral will be appropriate.”

- Waller (Sep 3, CNBC):

> “We need to **start cutting rates at the next meeting** ... speed will depend on data.”

- Bostic (Sep 3):

> “Some easing ... probably **25 basis points** ... over the remainder of this year.”

Consensus: **start in September, then go slow**. The debate is about *how fast* and *how many*, not *whether*.

How to Read Fed-Speak: A Three-Step Filter

1. **Keywords give direction**

- *patient / wait / clarity* → stand pat

- *adjust / appropriate / neutral* → signal cuts

- *gradual / data-dependent / not on a preset course* → speed = slow, conditional.

2. **The Chair is the anchor**

- April–June: Powell’s “wait for clarity” froze the tone.

- August: Powell’s “balance of risks shifting” unlocked consensus.

3. **Personalities signal speed**

- Waller = activist: “**cut 25bp now**.”

- Williams = gradualist: “**gradual path to neutral.**”

- Bowman = conditional: “**if conditions are right.**”

Six-Month Arc in One Slide

• **Apr–May**: *“No rush / wait for clarity”* — pure patience.
• **Jun–Jul**: *“Ready if needed / some say cut now”* — preparation + first dissenters.
• **Aug–Sep**: *“Risks shifting / gradual cuts”* — consensus for easing.

Final Lesson for Investors

• Spot the **speed & condition words**: *gradual*, *data-dependent* = no big cuts, slow pace.
• One loud voice matters less than the Chair’s nuance. Waller’s “cut now” shook traders, but Powell’s “risks shifting” at Jackson Hole was the true pivot.
• Don’t get lost in daily noise. Over six months, the story is clear: **patience → preparedness → gradual easing**.

Sources

• **Powell**: Apr 16 Chicago (“wait for clarity”), May 7 FOMC (“afford to be patient”), Jul 30 FOMC (“well positioned...” ), Aug 22 Jackson Hole (“balance of risks...”, “not on a preset course”).
• **Waller**: Jul 17 (“cut 25bp”), Aug 28 (“support 25bp + more”), Sep 3 (“start cutting next meeting”).
• **Daly**: Jul 10 (“two cuts likely”), Aug 4 (“time is nearing”).
• **Bowman**: Jun 23 (“support cut as soon as next meeting”).
• **Williams**: Apr 11 (“tariffs → 3.5–4%”), Sep 4 (“gradual cuts path”).
• **Bostic**: Apr 14 (“bold moves not prudent”), Sep 3 (“25bp easing likely”).