Oil Relief Triggers Big Rally In Stocks And Metals

March 31, 2026 Daily Macro Market Report

1. One-line take on today

On March 31, markets flipped from fear to relief: “war worries easing + slightly lower yields + oil cooling a bit” drove a powerful rebound in risk assets.

• The Dow soared more than 1,100 points, and the S&P 500 jumped 2.9%, its biggest gain since last spring.(apnews.com)
• The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to around 4.35% (about -2% on the day) after spiking over the past month.(apnews.com)
• Oil is still high, around $101–102 per barrel, but the recent vertical climb paused, helping stocks.(angle360ng.com)
• Gold and silver surged +3.8% and +6.9%, reminding everyone that “in doubt, people still pay for safety.”

Why it matters for you:
Over the last month, the pattern was “Iran war → oil spike → yields up → stocks down.” Today we saw the reverse: “peace hopes → oil stabilizing → yields down → stocks and risk assets rally together.” It’s a big relief day, but not yet a full all-clear signal.

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2. Rates: 10-year eases, but the big picture is still ‘high-rate world’

• 10-year Treasury yield (what the U.S. government pays to borrow for 10 years):
  • Today: 4.35% (roughly -2% vs. yesterday)
  • 30-day change: about +9.6% (up from near 4.0% at the end of February to above 4.4% last week, now back to the low 4.3s).(crfb.org)
• 10-year TIPS real yield (inflation-adjusted return on 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries):
  • Today: 2.04% (-4.2% on the day)
  • 30-day change: +18.6%, a sharp run-up in real yields.
• Yield curve (10-year minus 2-year spread):
  • Today: +0.53% (53 basis points, down about 5.4% on the day)
  • Yield curve simply means the difference between long-term (10-year) and short-term (2-year) interest rates.
  • A positive spread usually means less recession fear, a negative spread means more recession fear.

In plain English:

• Nominal rates (headline yields) are still high.
• Real rates (after inflation) have climbed a lot in the last month.

That means:

• Borrowing for households and companies is still expensive, and
• It’s still a world where “money has a real cost”, unlike the ultra-low-rate years.

Why did yields dip today?

• Markets grabbed onto signs that the Iran conflict might move toward a ceasefire or peace framework, dialing back some of the war premium that had pushed yields higher.(apnews.com)
• U.S. data on consumer confidence and job openings came in better than expected, which paradoxically helped: strong enough to avoid a growth scare, but not so hot that markets had to price even more rate hikes.(apnews.com)

Why you should care:

• If you own stocks or real estate: lower yields are generally good for asset prices, but the 30- and 90-day moves tell you we’re still in a rising-rate environment overall.
• If you have or want a mortgage: today’s move won’t instantly reset mortgage rates, but as the 10-year moves from the mid-4s toward 4% again, 30-year fixed rates can slowly ease off their peaks.

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3. Equities: tech and blue chips snap back from war-driven selloff

• S&P 500 ETF (SPY): +2.8% on the day, but -5.0% over 30 days → still in a correction on a monthly view.
• Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ): +3.2% today, yet -5–6% over the last 30 days.
• Dow ETF (DIA): +2.4% today.(apnews.com)

What actually happened?

• According to AP, the Dow jumped 1,125 points, the S&P 500 leaped 2.9%, and the Nasdaq surged 3.8%, marking the best day since last spring.(apnews.com)
• Tech and growth stocks led the charge, with Nvidia and other high-beta names acting like springs that had been compressed by weeks of war and rate fears.(apnews.com)

Why the violent swing? (Cause and effect)
Think of markets like a crowded theater where someone yelled “fire” last week (Iran war, oil spike, rates up). People rushed for the exits (sold risk assets).

Today, someone yelled “maybe it’s not a fire after all” (peace/ceasefire hopes):

• Peace signals on Iran prompted traders to quickly re-price the worst-case scenarios.(apnews.com)
• Oil staying around ~$100 instead of racing higher eased inflation fears just enough to ignite a relief rally.(angle360ng.com)
• The 10-year yield drifting down from 4.4% to the low 4.3s gave growth stocks oxygen again.(apnews.com)

How to interpret this as an investor:

• On a 1-day chart, this looks like “risk-on is back.”
• On a 30–90 day chart, major indexes are still down 3–6%, so this is more like a big counter-rally inside an ongoing correction than a guaranteed new bull phase.

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4. Commodities: oil stays expensive, gold and silver jump as ‘crisis insurance’

4.1 Oil: still above $100 and a key macro risk

• USO (oil ETF):
  • Today: about -2.0%
  • 30 days: +55%
  • 90 days: +84%
• WTI crude is trading around $101–102 per barrel, the highest since 2022, driven by the Iran conflict and supply disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.(angle360ng.com)

In everyday terms:
Oil has gone up like an elevator, not a staircase over the past month. Today, that elevator stopped and came down one floor, but you’re still very high up.

Why this matters to you:

• Higher oil flows through to gas prices, shipping, electricity, and heating bills.
• For companies, it’s higher input cost → margin pressure → potential drag on earnings and stock prices.
• For central banks, a sustained oil spike makes it harder to cut rates and can even bring rate hikes back onto the table if inflation re-accelerates.

4.2 Gold and silver: rallying alongside stocks – an unusual combo

• GLD (gold ETF): +3.8% today, +6.5% over 7 days, +8.6% over 90 days.
• SLV (silver ETF): +6.9% today, +7.9% over 7 days, +5.5% over 90 days.

Normally, when stocks rip higher, safe-haven assets like gold take a breather. Not today.

What this tells us:

• Investors are not fully convinced the crisis is over.
• Instead, they’re effectively saying:
  • “Let’s buy stocks because maybe the worst war scenario is off the table,” and at the same time,
  • “Let’s hold gold and silver just in case headlines turn ugly again.”(money.mymotherlode.com)

This is classic uncertainty behavior: risk-on and risk-off trades coexisting in the same portfolio.

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5. Dollar and global markets: broad rebound, but strong dollar keeps pressure on others

• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
  • Today: 100.46 (+0.2%)
  • 7 days: +1.4%
  • 30 days: +2.9%
  • 90 days: +2.4%
• Market commentary notes the dollar holding near 100.5 as the anchor of the FX system, while other assets move around it.(hw.online)

Global equity ETFs:

• Emerging Markets (VWO): +3.1% today, but -7.0% over 30 days.
• Europe (VGK): +3.2% today, -8.2% over 30 days.
• Japan (EWJ): +3.4% today, -8.7% over 30 days.

Big picture:

• Today’s “war risk relief rally” was global – not just a U.S. story.(apnews.com)
• But the strong dollar means:
  • For non-U.S. investors, their local currencies are weaker, so U.S. assets feel more expensive.
  • For U.S.-based investors buying foreign stocks, a strong dollar boosts returns when converted back into USD.

Why you should care:

• If you’re a U.S. investor in foreign ETFs, today you likely benefited from both local market rebounds and a firm dollar.
• If you’re outside the U.S. looking at U.S. assets, you’re facing the double whammy of high prices in dollars and a stronger dollar itself.

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6. Crypto: following the equity bounce, but conviction still fragile

• Bitcoin (BTC):
  • Today: $67,899 (+1.7%)
  • 7 days: -3.7%
  • 30 days: +3.2%
  • 90 days: -22.4%
• Ethereum (ETH):
  • Today: $2,101 (+3.8%)
  • 7 days: -2.6%
  • 30 days: +8.3%
  • 90 days: -29.2%

Market commentary suggests Bitcoin is holding around the $68K area but with fading conviction: price is up today, but positioning is cautious and narratives are split.(miniapp.gate.com)

Why the hesitation?

• The macro backdrop (war, oil, yields) is still unstable, and crypto has behaved like a high-beta extension of tech stocks in this cycle.
• After a 20%+ drawdown in 90 days, some investors see value, others fear that another macro shock could trigger fresh liquidations.

Why it matters for you:

• Crypto is still a “swing factor” asset class, very sensitive to macro headlines.
• On days like today, when stocks, gold, and silver all rise, Bitcoin tends to join the party.
• But if oil spikes again, yields surge, or peace talks fail, crypto can flip from “hedge against chaos” to “source of cash” very quickly.

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7. Three key takeaways from today

1. Peace hopes powered the best stock rally since last spring, but it’s still inside a broader correction.

   • Dow +1,100 points, S&P 500 +2.9%, Nasdaq +3.8%.
   • Over 30–90 days, indexes remain negative → big bounce within a choppy, nervous market.

2. Oil is still above $100, and safety assets are not cheap – fear hasn’t left the building.

   • Oil up ~55% in 30 days, ~84% in 90 days.
   • Gold and silver rallied alongside stocks, signaling hedging, not complacency.

3. Rates eased, but the high-rate regime is intact.

   • 10-year yields in the 4.3–4.4% range, real yields sharply higher over 30 days.
   • Good news for today’s equity bounce, but a lingering headwind for borrowers and long-duration assets.

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8. So what now? How to think about positioning

Looking only at today, you might feel like “risk is back, problem solved.” But the backdrop still includes:

• Unresolved Iran conflict risk,
• Oil stuck above $100,
• Elevated real yields, and
• A firm dollar.

For a typical individual investor, that suggests:

• If you panic-sold into war headlines, scaling back into quality assets on days like this can make sense.
• But levering up on the back of one huge green candle is dangerous in such a headline-driven environment.
• A mix of equities (especially quality tech and defensives) plus some gold and cash (USD) lets you participate in upside while still being able to sleep at night.

As we head into April, markets will shift focus back toward inflation data and the Fed’s rate path. Today’s rally could be the start of a new up-leg—or just another whiplash move in a volatile, war- and oil-driven tape. The next few macro prints will decide which story wins.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any specific security or asset.