February 26, 2026View Related Post →

Long Yields Slip Tech Stocks Stumble Bitcoin And Silver Surge

On Thursday, February 26, 2026, the U.S. 10-year yield drifted lower toward a three‑month low and the curve continued to steepen modestly, while the S&P 500 eked out gains despite renewed pressure on big tech. With the dollar little changed, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and silver led a sharp rebound in risk assets, hinting at improving risk appetite.

February 26, 2026 Daily Macro Market Report

1. Today’s Market at a Glance

  • U.S. 10Y Treasury yield: 4.04% (1D +0.25%) – after a sharp ~4.7% drop over the past 30 days, yields are hovering near a three‑month low, with only a mild bounce today.
  • 10Y real yield (TIPS): 1.78% (1D +0.56%) – down around 7% over 30 days, signaling a gradual easing in real financial conditions.
  • Yield curve (10Y–2Y): 0.60% – the spread narrowed slightly on the day but is much wider than 90 days ago, pointing to a slow normalization from prior inversion.
  • Dollar index (DXY): 97.86 (1D -0.06%) – effectively flat, offering little directional push.
  • Bitcoin: $68,013 (1D +6.14%) – a sharp technical rebound after a weak earlier week, with option expiry ahead.
  • S&P 500 ETF (SPY): 692.47 (1D +0.74%) – essentially flat over 30 days but up over 90 days.
  • Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ): 615.81 (1D +1.31%) – modest gains despite renewed volatility in big tech.
  • Dow ETF (DIA): 494.52 (1D +0.56%) – leading on a 90‑day view with rotation into value/defensive names.
  • Long Treasuries (TLT): 89.94 (1D +0.04%) – up over 2% in 30 days, reflecting the earlier slide in long yields.
  • Gold (GLD): 477.14 (1D +0.53%); Silver (SLV): 82.29 (1D +4.06%) – silver is up ~70% over 90 days.
  • Oil (USO): 79.65 (1D -1.37%) – giving back some of its ~8% 30‑day gain.
  • Global equities: EM (VWO), Europe (VGK), Japan (EWJ) all higher on the day and solidly positive over 90 days.

2. Theme 1 – Long yields near 3‑month lows: safe‑haven bid meets AI‑driven growth optimism

Over the past month, the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield has slid into the low‑4% range, touching three‑month lows before today’s minor uptick around 4.04%. Real yields tell a similar story, with a notable drop over 30 days.(marketwatch.com)

Key drivers:

  • Soft‑landing narrative

    • Recent labor data, including mid‑quarter ADP employment indicators, suggest the U.S. job market remains resilient, easing hard‑landing fears even as the case for rapid Fed cuts weakens.(markets.financialcontent.com)
    • At the same time, strong AI‑related investment has boosted long‑term growth expectations, bringing persistent demand for longer‑dated Treasuries and anchoring yields.(marketwatch.com)

  • Tech volatility and safe‑haven demand

    • Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings and guidance reaffirmed the AI boom, yet intraday trading saw heavy profit‑taking and sharp swings in the stock.(riotimesonline.com)
    • As big‑tech volatility picked up, some flows rotated into Treasuries and precious metals, reinforcing the bid for safe havens while equities digested AI euphoria.(bloomberg.com)

Bottom line:

  • The 30‑day downtrend in long yields remains intact; today’s move is a small counter‑rally.
  • A gradually steepening curve vs. 90 days ago signals less severe recession risk, a supportive backdrop for risk assets even as investors hedge with duration and gold.

3. Theme 2 – Bitcoin and Ethereum stage a sharp daily rebound ahead of a major options expiry

Crypto was among the biggest 24‑hour movers, with a classic mix of short covering and options‑driven flows behind the bounce.

  • Price action

    • Bitcoin: $68,013 (1D +6.14%, 7D +2.36%).
    • Ethereum: $2,058 (1D +11.09%, 7D +5.23%).
    • Yet both remain down roughly 23–30% over the last 30–90 days, framing today’s surge as a rebound within a broader corrective phase.

  • Immediate catalysts

    • Nvidia’s blowout AI earnings helped revive risk appetite across tech and digital assets, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $68k area and 24‑hour trading volumes jumping smartly.(riotimesonline.com)
    • External trackers show Bitcoin up around 4–5% on the day, to the high‑$68k range, outperforming the broader crypto complex.(livemint.com)

  • Derivatives positioning and the February 27 expiry

    • A large options expiry of roughly $10.5 billion in Bitcoin open interest set for Friday, February 27, is magnifying intraday swings as dealers and traders rebalance hedges.(newsbytesapp.com)
    • After five straight weeks of net outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs have reportedly flipped back to net inflows, adding fuel to the rebound narrative.(newsbytesapp.com)

Implications for investors:

  • Given the still‑negative 30‑ and 90‑day returns, today’s jump looks more like a “oversold bounce” than a confirmed new uptrend.
  • With long yields easing and AI‑linked risk sentiment improving, Bitcoin is again trading like a high‑beta mix of growth stock and “digital gold”, but near‑term volatility around Friday’s options expiry remains a key risk to watch.

4. Theme 3 – Gold, silver, and oil: inflation hedges diverge on growth vs. inventory shocks

4.1 Gold and silver: safe‑haven and inflation‑hedge demand in tandem

  • Gold (GLD): 1D +0.53%, 90D +24.54%.
  • Silver (SLV): 1D +4.06%, 7D +17.41%, 90D +70.02%.

Silver’s performance has dramatically outpaced gold over the last quarter.(fortune.com)

Drivers behind today’s strength:

  • Falling nominal and real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like gold and silver.
  • As soft‑landing hopes improve, industrial demand expectations for silver (used heavily in electronics, solar, and green tech) give it higher beta to the macro cycle.
  • Portfolio managers are still adding to precious metals as hedges against a potential re‑acceleration in inflation or renewed geopolitical shocks, even after the strong 90‑day rally.

4.2 Oil (USO): inventory shock triggers a modest pullback

  • USO: 79.65 (1D -1.37%, 30D +8.40%, 90D +13.72%).

U.S. crude inventories surged by about 16 million barrels, the largest weekly build of 2026 so far, sharply above expectations and reversing last week’s large draw.(riotimesonline.com)

  • This surprise build weighed on prices today, contributing to the 1%–plus decline in USO.
  • However, over 30–90 days, oil remains in an uptrend, with geopolitical risk in the Middle East helping to put a floor under prices.

Takeaway:

  • Precious metals are benefiting from the combination of lower yields, safe‑haven demand, and—especially for silver—industrial growth hopes.
  • Oil is digesting an inventory shock but still reflects a medium‑term story of tight supply and resilient demand, relevant for inflation hedging.

5. Theme 4 – U.S., Europe, and Japan equities: AI volatility, but global risk assets stay broadly resilient

5.1 United States: AI volatility contained at the index level

  • SPY: 1D +0.74%, 7D +0.90%, 30D roughly flat, 90D +2.18%.
  • QQQ: 1D +1.31%, 30D -1.54%, 90D +0.38%.
  • DIA: 1D +0.56%, 90D +4.65%.

Nvidia’s latest earnings confirmed that AI demand is still translating into massive revenue and profit growth, with management guiding aggressively for the next quarter.(riotimesonline.com)
Yet:

  • Intraday, Nvidia and other AI leaders saw sizable swings amid profit‑taking and valuation concerns.
  • Broader indices, however, held up or advanced modestly, suggesting the market is starting to digest AI booms and busts without derailing the larger soft‑landing narrative.
  • The Dow’s outperformance over 90 days points to incremental rotation into value and defensive sectors alongside AI‑linked growth names.

5.2 Europe, Japan, EM: synchronized strength

  • Europe (VGK): 90D +12.82%.
  • Japan (EWJ): 90D +15.23%.
  • Emerging markets (VWO): 90D +11.21%.

All three regions gained 0.5–1.4% today and have posted double‑digit gains over the last quarter, helped by:

  • In Europe, inflation finally slipping below the ECB’s 2% target, reinforcing the disinflation story and opening the door to a more growth‑friendly stance down the line.(riotimesonline.com)
  • In Japan, a blend of yen weakness, still‑moderate inflation, and ongoing corporate reforms keeps attracting foreign inflows.
  • In EM, a softer dollar and improving global growth expectations have underpinned a broad‑based recovery.

6. Investor checklist

  1. Rate levels and trajectory

    • Long yields are near three‑month lows, but today’s small bounce hints that the bond rally may pause or consolidate in the short term.
    • A gradually normalizing curve and fading recession signals provide a constructive backdrop for equities, especially cyclical and quality growth segments.

  2. Managing AI and tech volatility

    • AI leaders like Nvidia remain fundamentally strong but carry elevated valuation and event risk.
    • Investors heavily tilted to mega‑cap tech may want to balance with broader indices (e.g., SPY) or value‑tilted exposure (e.g., DIA) to reduce single‑theme risk.

  3. Crypto: short‑term event vs. medium‑term cycle

    • The February 27 options expiry can drive outsized, short‑term swings in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
    • Given the still‑negative 1–3 month performance, risk management around position sizing and leverage is crucial, even if today’s bounce continues.

  4. Commodities and precious metals as portfolio tools

    • Gold and especially silver can serve as both macro hedges and cyclical growth plays, particularly in portfolios dominated by stocks and bonds.
    • Oil’s pullback on inventory data doesn’t negate the medium‑term case for tighter supply, which remains relevant for inflation‑sensitive strategies.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investment decisions should be based on your own research and risk tolerance.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any specific security or asset.

← Back to News List