February 24, 2026View Related Post →

Equities Rebound While Tariff Shock Hammers Crypto

On February 24, 2026, U.S. equities rebounded as optimism over AI’s productivity potential offset the prior day’s tech selloff, while cryptocurrencies extended sharp losses under the weight of tariff shocks and regulatory uncertainty. Safe-haven and real-asset plays like gold, silver, oil, and long Treasuries continued to find support amid rising stagflation fears.

February 24, 2026 Daily Macro Market Report

Big Picture Today

On Tuesday, February 24, global markets traded on two big themes: fading AI panic vs. renewed AI optimism in equities, and a tariff shock hammering high‑risk assets like crypto.

  • U.S. stocks rebounded after Monday’s tech-led selloff, as investors refocused on AI’s productivity upside. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq each gained about 0.8–1.0%. (apnews.com)
  • The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield hovered around 4.08% with little daily change, though it’s down versus a month ago—indicating no new bond market shock despite rising tariff worries. (ycharts.com)
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum extended steep losses, dropping about 4–5% over the last 24 hours and more than 25–35% over 30 days, as tariffs, regulatory uncertainty, and AI‑related macro fears fueled a risk‑off move. (financialcontent.com)
  • Gold, silver, and oil ETFs (GLD, SLV, USO) all pushed higher, reflecting safe‑haven and real‑asset demand amid rising concerns about tariff-driven inflation and slower global growth.

This report focuses on (1) the AI‑driven rebound in U.S. equities, (2) the tariff shock and crypto selloff, (3) the shift into real and safe‑haven assets, and (4) how rates and the dollar are linking these moves.

1. AI anxiety eases, U.S. equities bounce back

On Monday (Feb 23), markets sold off sharply as fears that AI could wipe out parts of the software and services industries spooked investors. Today brought the mirror image: a relief rally centered on AI’s potential productivity gains. (nasdaq.com)

  • S&P 500 ETF (SPY): The ETF shows -0.32% over 24 hours, but the underlying cash index rose about +0.8%, clawing back much of Monday’s loss.
  • Nasdaq‑100 ETF (QQQ): Down 0.46% on the day in the provided data, but the broader Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.0%, led by tech. (apnews.com)
  • Dow ETF (DIA): Shows -0.34% in the table, while the actual Dow index gained 0.8%, reflecting a broad-based bounce.

What drove the rebound?

  • AMD: Shares surged after the company announced a multi‑year AI chip supply deal with Meta Platforms, helping lead the market higher as a key beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending. (apnews.com)
  • Software and tech more broadly: After heavy selling on fears of AI disruption, today saw bargain hunting and short‑covering, especially in the beaten‑down software segment. (ft.com)

Context: A short‑term bounce in a still‑correcting year

  • QQQ is +0.68% over 7 days but -2.68% over 30 days, showing that today’s move is a rebound within an ongoing correction.
  • Software indices remain deeply negative year‑to‑date, still digesting concerns about AI and late‑cycle risks. (ft.com)

In short, today’s equity story is “a one‑day relief rally as investors rotate from AI panic back toward AI opportunity.”

2. Tariff shock and the crypto selloff: risk assets under pressure

While stocks enjoyed a reprieve, crypto continued to bear the brunt of macro stress, underscoring its vulnerability as a high‑beta risk asset.

Bitcoin and Ethereum over the last 24 hours

  • Bitcoin (BTC):

    • Latest level around $64,600 (-4.44%) in the data.
    • News reports show BTC sliding toward $63,000, roughly 50% below its ~$126,000 peak four months ago. (business.thepilotnews.com)
    • Over 30 days it’s down about 27.5%, and 90 days about 26%, marking the worst monthly drop since the 2022 “crypto winter.”

  • Ethereum (ETH):

    • Around $1,856 (-5.19%) on the day.
    • Roughly -37% over 30 and 90 days, showing even higher volatility than Bitcoin.

Why are cryptos getting hit so hard?

  1. Tariff shock and stagflation fears

    • After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down earlier emergency tariff measures on Feb 20, the administration responded on Feb 23 by invoking Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%. (financialcontent.com)
    • Markets now fear a mix of higher import prices (inflation) and slower global growth, a classic stagflation risk that tends to crush speculative assets.

  2. AI scare and macro uncertainty spilling into digital assets

    • A widely discussed report painted a scenario where AI could push U.S. unemployment into double digits by 2028, amplifying long‑term economic anxiety. (barrons.com)
    • Cryptocurrencies, which behave like high‑beta growth proxies, are selling off alongside the more vulnerable corners of the equity market.

Net result: Bitcoin is behaving less like “digital gold” and more like a leveraged Nasdaq play, making it especially sensitive to the current combo of tariffs, AI fears, and growth concerns.

3. Gold, silver, and oil: real and safe‑haven assets in favor

The flip side of the risk‑off move in crypto is a steady bid for real assets and traditional hedges.

Gold – classic hedge against inflation and policy risk

  • GLD:
    • +1.46% on the day.
    • +2.78% over 7 days, +3.82% over 30 days, and +25.1% over 90 days — a strong, persistent uptrend.
  • Drivers:
    • Higher tariffs raise concerns about import‑price‑driven inflation.
    • Policy and AI‑related uncertainty in equities increases demand for classic safe havens.

Silver – volatile but powerful 90‑day rally

  • SLV:
    • +3.32% today and +13.5% over 7 days, signaling a sharp short‑term rebound.
    • -14.8% over 30 days but +69.6% over 90 days, showing a recent correction followed by renewed upside momentum.
  • Silver benefits from both precious‑metal demand and industrial uses, including green‑energy applications.

Oil – supported by supply risks and geopolitics

  • USO (oil ETF):
    • +0.98% on the day, +7.11% over 7 days, +10.4% over 30 days, +17.9% over 90 days.
  • Despite growth concerns, markets are focused on ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, which help keep prices elevated.

Taken together, today’s moves reinforce a key allocation theme:

“Real and safe‑haven assets (gold, silver, oil, and to some extent long Treasuries) are in demand, while high‑risk digital assets are under pressure.”

4. Rates and the dollar: no sudden moves, but direction matters

U.S. Treasury yields – long end stable, curve modestly steepening

  • The 10‑year yield is around 4.08–4.1%, with virtually no daily change, down modestly versus a month ago and slightly higher than three months ago. (ycharts.com)
  • The 10Y–2Y spread sits near +0.60%, indicating partial normalization of the curve from earlier, deeper inversion.

This suggests that markets are:

  • Gently pricing in the possibility of future Fed cuts on slower growth, while
  • Keeping long‑term inflation risk from tariffs in view, which prevents a major rally in long‑dated bonds.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) – effectively flat on the day

  • DXY at 97.59, +0.03% on the day is essentially unchanged.
  • Over 90 days it’s down about 2.2%, but today’s move is best read as “wait and see”.

In other words, tariffs have not yet forced a sharp repricing in rates or the dollar. The real test will come as upcoming inflation and growth data reveal how much of the tariff shock passes through to the real economy.

5. Cross‑asset themes: three key stories today

Theme 1: AI fear vs. AI beneficiaries – equity market bifurcation

  • Software and IT services names still face a structural overhang from fears of AI‑driven disruption, though today brought some relief buying.
  • AI infrastructure plays — semiconductors, power utilities, energy, and materials — continue to benefit from expectations that AI will require massive investments in physical capacity. (apnews.com)

This reflects an ongoing rotation from “intangible, easily disrupted” assets toward “tangible, hard‑to‑replicate” assets.

Theme 2: Tariff‑driven stagflation fears and the safe‑haven bid

  • The hike in global tariffs from 10% to 15% raises the risk of higher prices plus weaker growth. (financialcontent.com)
  • That combination tends to support:
    • Gold, silver, oil, and quality bonds (e.g., TLT), and
    • Weigh on crypto, high‑beta growth, and richly valued tech.

Theme 3: Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative under strain

  • In recent days, we’ve seen:
    • Gold (GLD) up on tariff and policy worries, while
    • Bitcoin plunges alongside risk assets.
  • This divergence weakens the argument that BTC consistently acts as an inflation hedge; it’s trading more like a speculative risk asset tied to overall liquidity and growth sentiment.

Looking ahead: what to watch next

  1. Upcoming macro data (next 1–2 weeks)

    • Inflation (CPI), employment, and ISM surveys will show how much of the tariff shock is feeding into prices and growth.

  2. Fed communication

    • Policymakers will need to balance higher inflation risks from tariffs against signs of slowing activity. Markets may lean toward expecting gradual rate cuts if growth weakens, even with elevated headline inflation.

  3. AI‑related headlines and earnings

    • Whether AI panic or AI productivity optimism dominates will be crucial for the path of tech and growth stocks.

From an investor’s standpoint, today’s tape suggests it may be a good moment to:

  • Re‑evaluate exposure to the most speculative corners of the market (especially crypto and the highest‑beta growth names), and
  • Consider whether your allocation to real and safe‑haven assets (gold, select commodities, high‑quality fixed income) is aligned with rising tariff and policy risks.

This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any specific security or asset.

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