February 25, 2026View Related Post →

Bitcoin Rebound And Yield Curve Twist Risk Assets Catch Their Breath

On February 25, the U.S. 10-year yield eased back near the low‑4% area as the recent ‘yield curve twist’ persisted, while Bitcoin sharply rebounded into the mid‑$60,000s after a steep monthly sell‑off. The dollar is slightly softer amid tariff uncertainty, and U.S. equities are holding firm ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, with tech leading gains.

February 25, 2026 Daily Macro Market Report

1. Big picture: what moved today

  • U.S. 10Y Treasury yield: 4.03% (1D -1.23%) – drifting lower from the recent 4.3% peak
  • 10Y TIPS real yield: 1.77% (1D -1.67%) – inflation‑adjusted long rates falling even more, reflecting growth worries
  • Yield curve (10Y–2Y spread): +0.61% (1D +1.67%) – a persistent “twist” with short rates high and long rates easing (business.thepilotnews.com)
  • U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 97.92 (1D +0.34%) – bouncing after tariff‑driven weakness, but policy risk caps the upside (fxempire.com)
  • Bitcoin / Ethereum: BTC $64,083 (1D -0.87%), ETH $1,852 (1D -0.20%) – still deep in correction on a 30‑day basis (-26% and -34%)
  • U.S. equity ETFs: modest gains led by tech (SPY +0.52%, QQQ +0.88%, DIA +0.61%) as investors position ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. (bloomberg.com)

Key takeaways

  1. Yield‑curve twist: front‑end rates remain elevated under a “higher for longer” Fed, while the 10Y drifts toward 4%, signaling growth slowdown and risk‑off hedging. (business.thepilotnews.com)
  2. Dollar in a tariff fog: fresh tariff plans from the Trump administration have injected uncertainty, knocking the dollar lower yesterday before today’s partial rebound. (fxempire.com)
  3. Crypto: bounce attempt after a heavy month: Bitcoin remains on track for one of its steepest monthly declines since 2022 but is trying to stabilize in the mid‑$60Ks as dip‑buyers emerge. (vietnam.vn)
  4. U.S. stocks: Nvidia in the spotlight: major indices grind higher, with growth and tech leading as Nvidia’s after‑hours earnings are treated as a key sentiment catalyst for the AI trade. (bloomberg.com)
  5. Commodities: gold/silver pause at high levels: gold and silver ETFs are down around 2% on the day but still show strong double‑digit gains over 90 days, underlining ongoing hedge demand.

2. Rates & bonds: the 2026 yield‑curve twist

2.1 Long rates down, short rates stuck high

  • Data recap
    • 10Y nominal yield: 4.03% (1D -1.23%, 30D -4.95%)
    • 10Y TIPS real yield: 1.77% (1D -1.67%, 30D -7.81%)
    • 10Y–2Y spread: +0.61% (1D +1.67%, 90D +10.91%)

The U.S. Treasury market is in the middle of a notable “yield‑curve twist”: short‑maturity bills (1M–1Y) have climbed toward ~3.7%, anchored by a Fed that remains wary of sticky inflation, while the 10Y yield has slipped from about 4.3% in January to near 4.0%. This reflects a tug‑of‑war between hawkish near‑term policy expectations and growing concern about the long‑run growth and inflation outlook. (business.thepilotnews.com)

2.2 What TLT is telling us

  • The 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) sits at $89.98 (1D +0.27%, 30D +2.72%), echoing the downtrend in long yields and rising demand for duration.
  • That suggests investors are rotating part of their risk exposure from equities into long‑dated Treasuries as a hedge against a potential slowdown.

Investor lens

  • Near‑term: stubbornly high front‑end yields and elevated real rates keep the bar high for risk assets.
  • Longer term: lower long yields indicate mounting recession or geopolitical worries.
  • For individuals, this environment often leads to a barbell approach:
    • hold cash/short‑term instruments for optionality, and
    • layer in long‑duration bonds (e.g., via TLT) gradually to benefit if the slowdown narrative strengthens.

3. Dollar & global markets: pressured but not broken

3.1 Dollar: tariff uncertainty meets safe‑haven flows

  • DXY at 97.92 (1D +0.34%) masks recent volatility: on February 25 it traded lower as traders digested new U.S. tariff plans after the Supreme Court struck down earlier emergency measures.
  • President Trump has moved to impose new 10% tariffs under Section 122, with scope to raise them to 15% within 150 days, a shift that markets see as policy instability rather than a clear pro‑growth signal. (fxempire.com)
  • The result: the dollar finds some support from safe‑haven demand and high U.S. yields, but its upside is capped by trade and political risk.

3.2 Global equity ETFs: selective strength outside the U.S.

  • Emerging Markets (VWO): $58.75 (1D +1.19%, 30D +3.49%, 90D +10.70%)
  • Europe (VGK): $89.67 (1D +0.20%, 30D +3.15%, 90D +11.75%)
  • Japan (EWJ): $91.32 (1D -0.08%, 30D +7.99%, 90D +13.78%)

With the dollar’s uptrend cooling over the past three months, EM, Europe, and Japan have quietly outperformed, each logging double‑digit 90‑day gains. In Japan’s case, a still‑accommodative BOJ stance and corporate reforms have drawn sustained foreign inflows. (blackrock.com)

4. U.S. equities: a quiet rally before Nvidia

4.1 ETF snapshot

  • S&P 500 ETF (SPY): $685.91 (1D +0.52%, 30D -0.48%)
  • Nasdaq‑100 ETF (QQQ): $606.69 (1D +0.88%, 30D -2.57%)
  • Dow ETF (DIA): $491.00 (1D +0.61%, 30D +0.14%)

Wall Street is in wait‑and‑see mode ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report after the close. Nvidia has become the poster child of the AI investment cycle, so its guidance is seen as a proxy for broader AI‑linked capex and demand. That’s helping

  • QQQ outperform SPY and DIA on the day,
  • even as its 30‑day performance remains slightly negative, highlighting how volatile the growth/AI trade has been.

News flow from major outlets describes U.S. stocks as “drifting higher” into the report, with traders effectively front‑running a potential positive surprise but keeping powder dry in case of disappointment. (bloomberg.com)

4.2 How rates & the dollar feed into equities

  • Softer long yields near 4% ease valuation pressure on long‑duration growth stocks.
  • But elevated front‑end rates and tariff uncertainty limit how far multiples can expand.
  • Put differently: Nvidia can swing not just semis but the broader risk mood today, because macro tailwinds (lower long yields) and headwinds (policy risk, high real yields) are finely balanced.

For individual investors

  • Near term, watch the Nvidia → AI/semis → broader growth domino.
  • Longer term, be mindful that high real rates and policy volatility argue for measured, stepwise positioning in high‑beta tech, rather than all‑in bets around a single earnings print.

5. Crypto: heavy month, tactical bounce

5.1 Bitcoin and Ethereum price action

  • Bitcoin (BTC): $64,083 (1D -0.87%, 7D -5.03%, 30D -25.98%, 90D -29.17%)
  • Ethereum (ETH): $1,852 (1D -0.20%, 7D -6.98%, 30D -34.20%, 90D -38.81%)

By late February, Bitcoin is on track for one of its steepest monthly drops since 2022, with some data showing a roughly 35% slide from late‑January highs near $88K to the mid‑$60Ks. (vietnam.vn)

Yet in the latest 24 hours, BTC appears to be basing in the $62–65K range, with multiple reports highlighting:

  • support emerging near levels that approximate estimated mining costs, and
  • evidence of short‑covering and dip‑buying after a capitulation‑like flush. (bitcoinmagazine.com)

5.2 Macro linkages

  • High real yields (10Y TIPS at 1.77%) are a structural headwind for yield‑less assets like Bitcoin and gold.
  • But macro uncertainty around tariffs, growth, and monetary policy is also adding demand for alternative stores of value, even if flows are choppy.
  • Today’s message from crypto is mixed: the trend remains down over 30–90 days, but the pace of selling has slowed, opening the door to sharper short‑term rebounds if macro news turns friendlier.

6. Commodities: precious‑metal pause, oil grind higher

6.1 Gold and silver: short‑term pullback, long‑term strength

  • Gold ETF (GLD): $471.70 (1D -1.99%, 7D +5.24%, 90D +23.12%)
  • Silver ETF (SLV): $79.04 (1D -1.90%, 7D +19.09%, 90D +63.31%)

Both metals are taking a breather today as the dollar firms intraday and risk appetite picks up ahead of Nvidia. But on a 90‑day basis, gold and especially silver have posted very strong gains, supported by:

  • persistent geopolitical tensions,
  • concerns over tariffs and inflation volatility, and
  • long‑term doubts about fiat currency purchasing power. (marketpulse.com)

6.2 Oil: gentle uptrend keeps inflation fears alive

  • U.S. Oil Fund (USO): $80.30 (1D -0.74%, 7D +6.03%, 30D +8.59%, 90D +14.65%)

Crude prices have climbed steadily over the past month, reviving worries that energy‑driven price pressures could complicate the Fed’s path to rate cuts. For energy‑importing economies and fuel‑sensitive sectors, this acts as a margin headwind and a reminder that the inflation story is not yet fully behind us.

7. Three key themes for today

  1. Yield‑curve twist & safety bid

    • Short rates are pinned high by a cautious Fed, while long yields drift lower as investors hedge against slower growth.
    • Long‑duration bonds (e.g., via TLT) are quietly benefiting, signaling a measured rotation from equities to duration.

  2. Nvidia as today’s risk switch

    • Nvidia’s earnings are poised to influence not just semiconductors but the broader AI and growth‑equity complex.
    • With long yields easing and policy risks elevated, the market is finely balanced; a miss could trigger outsized volatility.

  3. Alternative hedges: Bitcoin vs. gold/silver

    • Bitcoin is trying to recover from a sharp monthly drawdown, helped by short‑covering and dip‑buyers.
    • Gold and silver are consolidating after strong multi‑month advances, maintaining their role as portfolio insurance against geopolitical and policy shocks.
    • All three remain high‑volatility hedges, best handled in moderation within a diversified portfolio.

8. A simple checklist for individual investors

This section is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All decisions are your own.

  • Check your rate sensitivity

    • How exposed are you to high‑duration assets (growth stocks, REITs, long‑dated bonds)?
    • Do you have sufficient cash/short‑term exposure to handle further volatility?

  • Account for tariff and policy risk

    • Review positions in companies and regions that are highly sensitive to trade flows and supply chains.
    • Use diversification rather than concentrated bets on any single policy outcome.

  • Size alternative assets wisely

    • Treat gold, silver, and crypto as satellite allocations, sized according to your risk tolerance.
    • Favor gradual, diversified entry over large, short‑term timing bets.

Today’s tape reflects a market that is cautiously constructive: investors aren’t abandoning risk, but they are increasingly selective and macro‑aware. With the yield‑curve twist, tariff uncertainty, and a pivotal tech earnings report all in play, it’s a good moment to re‑check your long‑term plan and risk controls before chasing short‑term moves.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any specific security or asset.

← Back to News List